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DVA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-10-28 → 2024-03-05

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 31, 1995 🔗 www.davita.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.63B 👥 Employees: 76,000
DaVita is the largest provider of dialysis services in the United States, boasting market share of about 35% when measured by clinics. The firm operates over 3,000 facilities worldwide, mostly in the US, and treats about 280,000 patients globally each year. Government payers dominate US dialysis reimbursement. DaVita receives about two thirds of US sales at government (primarily Medicare) reimbursement rates, with the remainder coming from commercial insurers. While commercial insurers represent only about 10% of US patients treated, they represent nearly all of the profits generated by DaVita in the US dialysis business. Berkshire Hathaway owns about 45% of DaVita.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
75.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.20%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.90%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.50%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -0.45%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: -0.80%
Trades: 5/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +1.77%
Worst: -3.05%
Trades: 6/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: -2.84%
Best: +1.73%
Worst: -5.15%
Trades: 5/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.57%
Avg Winner: +1.87%
Avg Loser: -3.02%
Best: +2.71%
Worst: -6.76%
Trades: 4/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: -0.80%
Avg Winner: +1.61%
Avg Loser: -4.80%
Best: +3.48%
Worst: -8.98%
Trades: 5/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.90%
Best MFE: +4.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 122 min

On average, DVA alerts reach +1.90% profit potential within 122 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.20%
Worst MAE: -0.95%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.20%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

9.65:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 9.65x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, DVA typically reaches +1.90% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 62.5%
Avg Gap +0.24%
Best Gap +1.09%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISC HEALTH & ALLIED SERVICES, NEC

How DVA compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
DVA: +0.50% Sector: +0.23% +0.27%
EOD Gain
DVA: -0.80% Sector: +335.81% -336.60%
Avg MFE
DVA: +1.90% Sector: +8.55% -6.65%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical DVA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-05 09:28:11 $133.27 +0.41% +0.66% +0.53% +1.84% +1.04% +2.27% -0.95% +0.10% WIN
2023-11-21 09:29:00 $97.23 +0.69% +0.77% +0.95% +1.24% +0.33% +1.47% +0.22% +0.22% WIN
2023-11-07 09:28:00 $77.4 +1.63% +1.59% +1.73% +2.71% +3.48% +4.48% +0.84% +1.09% WIN
2023-10-11 09:26:00 $75.5 +1.31% +1.77% +1.53% -0.48% +0.52% +3.31% -0.44% +0.93% WIN
2023-05-11 09:26:00 $99.27 -0.80% -0.90% -2.33% -2.99% -3.71% -0.37% -0.95% -0.51% LOSS
2023-05-10 09:29:00 $101.0 +0.83% +0.13% -1.06% -1.83% -1.71% +1.14% +0.49% +0.49% WIN
2023-04-28 09:25:00 $88.01 -0.10% +0.65% +1.06% +1.68% +2.67% +2.91% -0.14% -0.01% LOSS
2022-10-28 09:25:00 $77.5 - -3.05% -5.15% -6.76% -8.98% - -0.65% -0.39% -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 75.0% Baseline on DVA

The 75.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push DVA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize DVA Strategy →

Why Analyze DVA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for DVA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, DVA historically offers an average upside of +1.90% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 DVA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 75.0%, DVA shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show DVA performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.20%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.