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ETSY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 50 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-04 → 2025-02-12

⚠️ Small sample size (50 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 16, 2015 🔗 www.etsy.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.94B 👥 Employees: 2,400
Etsy operates a top-10 e-commerce marketplace in the US and the UK, with sizable operations in Germany, France, Australia, and Canada. The firm dominates an interesting niche, connecting buyers and sellers through its online market to exchange vintage and craft goods. With $12.5 billion in 2024 consolidated gross merchandise volume, Etsy has cemented itself as one of the largest players in a quickly growing space, generating revenue from listing fees, commissions on sold items, advertising services, payment processing, and shipping labels. The firm connects about 95 million buyers and 8 million sellers on its marketplace properties: Etsy and Depop (clothing resale).
📊
50
Total Alerts
🎯
52.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.13%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.97%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.8%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +1.88%
Avg Loser: -1.48%
Best: +5.16%
Worst: -5.61%
Trades: 20/29

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +1.84%
Avg Loser: -2.28%
Best: +6.46%
Worst: -7.39%
Trades: 24/25

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.07%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +7.97%
Worst: -7.03%
Trades: 23/26

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.0%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +2.20%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +9.58%
Worst: -6.89%
Trades: 25/24

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 52.0%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.32%
Avg Loser: -2.24%
Best: +9.92%
Worst: -6.52%
Trades: 26/24

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.97%
Best MFE: +11.89%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, ETSY alerts reach +2.97% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.77%
Worst MAE: -10.71%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.77%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.67:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 50 alerts, ETSY typically reaches +2.97% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 50
Gap Up % 48.0%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +2.39%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

How ETSY compares to 59 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ETSY: -0.11% Sector: -0.05% -0.06%
EOD Gain
ETSY: +0.16% Sector: +1758.96% -1758.80%
Avg MFE
ETSY: +2.96% Sector: +2.89% +0.07%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ETSY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:25:31 $52.26 -0.57% +1.07% +0.92% +0.94% +1.01% +2.49% -0.92% -0.43% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:55 $57.01 -5.03% -3.26% -1.85% -0.51% -3.86% +0.96% -5.33% -0.02% LOSS
2024-11-18 09:28:44 $49.97 -0.06% +0.67% +0.72% +1.24% +1.18% +2.24% -0.60% -0.32% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:26:05 $53.0 +1.00% +1.26% +1.27% +1.16% +0.58% +2.34% -0.17% +0.77% WIN
2024-11-01 09:29:09 $50.85 +0.18% +1.40% +2.43% +3.83% +3.78% +4.90% -1.00% +0.26% WIN
2024-10-31 09:29:48 $52.53 +5.00% +1.35% +0.58% +0.66% -2.08% +5.62% -1.05% -0.13% WIN
2024-08-13 09:25:30 $53.84 -2.25% -1.33% -0.96% +0.42% +0.42% +1.17% -2.41% -0.63% LOSS
2024-07-12 09:25:39 $58.81 -0.01% +1.55% +2.60% +2.19% +2.87% +3.69% -0.63% -0.58% LOSS
2024-05-02 09:28:24 $58.6 +3.60% -1.18% +0.63% -1.84% +1.09% +4.03% -3.41% -0.05% WIN
2024-04-18 09:29:39 $64.91 +2.62% +2.92% +2.57% +3.02% +3.74% +3.93% +0.57% +0.68% WIN
2024-03-19 09:27:00 $68.32 +2.47% +1.33% -0.54% -0.45% -2.17% +4.65% -0.45% +0.25% WIN
2024-03-14 09:27:12 $70.31 -1.27% -1.29% -3.00% -3.51% -4.11% -0.60% -1.01% -0.60% LOSS
2024-02-22 09:29:18 $73.22 -2.29% -2.57% -1.43% -2.10% -3.55% +0.37% -3.93% +0.34% LOSS
2024-02-13 09:27:43 $74.5 -0.72% +0.17% -0.39% -0.39% -0.15% +1.88% -1.99% +0.08% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $73.6 - - - - -1.33% +3.26% -8.02% -0.82% -
2023-11-02 09:26:00 $59.36 +3.50% +0.12% +0.27% +1.13% +3.82% +8.17% -1.95% +1.08% WIN
2023-09-14 09:25:00 $68.3 -0.42% -2.20% -2.69% -3.44% -2.37% +1.68% -0.42% +0.42% LOSS
2023-09-08 09:25:00 $69.7 -1.07% -1.97% -2.96% -3.02% -3.69% -0.44% -1.22% -0.44% LOSS
2023-08-25 09:26:00 $71.81 +1.49% +1.56% +1.78% +2.23% +0.70% +2.83% - +0.79% WIN
2023-08-18 09:25:00 $73.91 -1.39% -0.73% +0.02% +0.85% -0.18% +0.96% -1.82% -0.78% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 52.0% Baseline on ETSY

The 52.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ETSY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ETSY Strategy →

Why Analyze ETSY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ETSY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ETSY historically offers an average upside of +2.97% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ETSY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.0%, ETSY shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ETSY performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.13%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.