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EXEL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-29 → 2024-10-16

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 11, 2000 🔗 www.exelixis.com
💰 Market Cap: $11.87B 👥 Employees: 1,147
Exelixis Inc is a biopharmaceutical firm that discovers, develops, and commercializes treatments for cancer. Its molecule, cabozantinib, is indicated for the treatment of patients with metastatic medullary thyroid cancer under the name Cometriq and for the treatment of kidney and liver cancer under the name Cabometyx. Exelixis and its partner Roche have also brought Cotellic to market for the treatment of melanoma.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
71.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.11%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.54%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.40%
Avg Loser: -1.39%
Best: +0.80%
Worst: -2.55%
Trades: 5/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: +0.97%
Worst: -2.38%
Trades: 5/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -1.09%
Best: +0.80%
Worst: -1.84%
Trades: 4/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.60%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +1.83%
Worst: -2.13%
Trades: 5/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +2.30%
Worst: -3.38%
Trades: 4/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.54%
Best MFE: +3.17%
Avg Time to MFE: 172 min

On average, EXEL alerts reach +1.54% profit potential within 172 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.41%
Worst MAE: -1.32%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.41%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.77:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.77x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, EXEL typically reaches +1.54% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap -0.22%
Best Gap +0.41%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How EXEL compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EXEL: -0.11% Sector: -0.41% +0.30%
EOD Gain
EXEL: +0.19% Sector: +1233.50% -1233.32%
Avg MFE
EXEL: +1.54% Sector: +6.69% -5.15%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EXEL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-16 09:28:35 $28.69 +0.07% +0.77% +0.80% +1.83% +2.30% +3.17% -1.32% +0.03% WIN
2024-10-03 09:26:48 $26.52 +0.19% +0.89% +0.45% +0.06% -1.06% +1.41% -0.26% - WIN
2023-11-01 09:26:00 $20.59 +0.80% +0.97% +0.34% +0.58% +2.09% +2.43% +0.17% +0.24% WIN
2023-08-24 09:25:00 $22.51 -2.55% -2.38% -1.84% -2.13% -3.38% +0.84% -0.04% -2.27% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:29:00 $17.27 +0.46% +0.75% - +0.20% +0.58% +1.16% -0.35% +0.41% WIN
2023-02-21 09:28:00 $17.51 -0.23% -0.06% -0.34% -0.09% -0.34% +0.23% -0.63% -0.34% LOSS
2022-03-29 09:25:00 $21.75 +0.46% +0.34% +0.23% +0.32% +1.10% +1.52% -0.41% +0.41% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EXEL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 71.4% win rate, EXEL has -0.11% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making EXEL profitable.

🔧 Fix EXEL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze EXEL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EXEL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EXEL historically offers an average upside of +1.54% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EXEL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.4%, EXEL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.39%) outweigh average wins (+0.40%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EXEL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.11%). This suggests EXEL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.