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EXPD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-19 → 2024-12-04

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. ARRANGEMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OF FREIGHT & CARGO (SIC 4731)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 26, 1984 🔗 www.expeditors.com
💰 Market Cap: $21.34B 👥 Employees: 18,400
Based in the US, Expeditors International of Washington is a non-asset-based third-party logistics provider, mainly focused on international freight forwarding. Its offers freight consolidation and forwarding, customs brokerage, warehousing and distribution, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, and numerous other value-added logistics services. It employs sophisticated IT systems and contracts with airlines and ocean carriers to move customers' freight across the globe. The firm operates more than 200 full-service office locations worldwide, in addition to numerous satellite locations. Expeditors derives around 35% of consolidated gross revenue from airfreight, 30% from ocean freight, and 36% from customs brokerage and other services.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
36.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.20%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.60%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +1.12%
Worst: -1.23%
Trades: 4/7

15MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -0.60%
Avg Winner: +0.62%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +1.28%
Worst: -3.25%
Trades: 3/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 18.2%
Avg Gain: -0.89%
Avg Winner: +0.49%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +0.75%
Worst: -3.33%
Trades: 2/9

60MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -1.41%
Avg Winner: +0.22%
Avg Loser: -2.02%
Best: +0.60%
Worst: -6.07%
Trades: 3/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 36.4%
Avg Gain: -0.85%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +2.11%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 4/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.50%
Best MFE: +2.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 86 min

On average, EXPD alerts reach +0.50% profit potential within 86 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.79%
Worst MAE: -1.83%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.79%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.63:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, EXPD typically reaches +0.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 36.4%
Avg Gap -0.38%
Best Gap +0.29%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ARRANGEMENT OF TRANSPORTATION OF FREIGHT & CARGO

How EXPD compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EXPD: -0.20% Sector: -1.08% +0.87%
EOD Gain
EXPD: -0.85% Sector: +171364.87% -171365.71%
Avg MFE
EXPD: +0.50% Sector: +7.01% -6.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EXPD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-04 09:27:37 $120.7 -0.34% -0.97% -0.39% -0.81% +0.41% +0.53% -1.08% -0.63% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:29:34 $122.09 +0.27% +0.36% +0.22% +0.05% +0.25% +0.51% -0.32% +0.08% WIN
2022-07-20 09:25:00 $100.13 +0.07% -0.17% -0.32% +0.01% +2.11% +2.42% -0.49% +0.07% WIN
2022-07-05 09:25:00 $97.58 -0.78% -1.03% -1.34% -1.67% -1.11% -0.31% -1.07% -0.46% LOSS
2022-04-13 09:25:00 $96.74 +0.96% +1.28% +0.75% +0.60% +0.65% +1.28% -0.22% +0.29% WIN
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $102.55 +1.12% -1.20% -1.63% -2.07% -1.69% +1.12% -0.53% -0.04% WIN
2022-03-04 09:25:00 $100.99 -0.05% -0.33% -0.48% -1.03% -1.46% +0.20% -0.48% +0.01% LOSS
2022-02-25 09:25:00 $105.5 -0.20% +0.22% -0.46% -1.04% -0.14% +0.63% -1.26% -0.34% LOSS
2022-02-22 09:25:00 $108.0 -1.02% -3.25% -3.33% -6.07% -3.96% - - -1.26% LOSS
2022-02-17 09:25:00 $108.11 -1.23% -0.98% -1.97% -1.66% -1.90% -0.80% -1.83% -0.92% LOSS
2022-01-19 09:25:00 $122.08 -1.03% -0.55% -0.88% -1.81% -2.51% -0.11% -1.45% -0.98% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EXPD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 36.4% win rate and -0.20% average gain, EXPD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider EXPD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze EXPD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EXPD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EXPD historically offers an average upside of +0.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EXPD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 36.4%, EXPD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests EXPD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EXPD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.20%). This suggests EXPD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.