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EXPE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 52 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-01 → 2025-02-07

⚠️ Small sample size (52 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (SIC 4700)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 10, 1999 🔗 www.expediagroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $33.22B 👥 Employees: 16,500
Expedia is the world's second-largest online travel agency by bookings, offering services for lodging (80% of total 2024 sales), air tickets (3%), rental cars, cruises, in-destination, and other (10%), and advertising revenue (7%). Expedia operates a number of branded travel booking sites, but its three core online travel agency brands are Expedia, Hotels.com, and alternative accommodations brand Vrbo. It also has a metasearch brand, Trivago. Transaction fees for online bookings account for the bulk of sales and profits.
📊
52
Total Alerts
🎯
55.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.87%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.8%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.89%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +5.66%
Worst: -6.68%
Trades: 29/23

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +1.01%
Avg Loser: -1.49%
Best: +2.63%
Worst: -5.79%
Trades: 28/24

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.41%
Avg Loser: -1.83%
Best: +4.58%
Worst: -10.08%
Trades: 24/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.3%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +1.77%
Avg Loser: -1.96%
Best: +6.08%
Worst: -9.75%
Trades: 22/30

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.54%
Avg Winner: +2.10%
Avg Loser: -2.99%
Best: +6.38%
Worst: -11.84%
Trades: 25/27

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.87%
Best MFE: +8.34%
Avg Time to MFE: 117 min

On average, EXPE alerts reach +1.87% profit potential within 117 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.65%
Worst MAE: -4.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.65%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.88:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.88x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 52 alerts, EXPE typically reaches +1.87% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 52
Gap Up % 44.2%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +1.93%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TRANSPORTATION SERVICES

How EXPE compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EXPE: -0.04% Sector: -0.21% +0.18%
EOD Gain
EXPE: -0.54% Sector: +900.40% -900.94%
Avg MFE
EXPE: +1.87% Sector: +3.46% -1.59%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EXPE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-07 09:25:26 $192.99 +2.60% +1.55% +4.58% +3.51% +4.86% +6.28% -0.28% +0.90% WIN
2024-10-17 09:28:14 $160.84 -1.93% -0.99% -1.44% -1.70% -1.76% +0.65% -0.45% -0.21% LOSS
2024-08-09 09:25:07 $130.0 +0.23% -1.04% -2.31% -1.79% +0.01% +1.01% -0.60% - WIN
2024-05-03 09:25:38 $125.0 -3.93% -4.82% -4.77% -5.39% -7.74% +0.86% -1.27% -2.15% LOSS
2024-04-03 09:27:17 $130.73 -0.18% -0.56% -0.46% +1.03% -0.13% +1.18% -0.90% +0.18% LOSS
2024-03-26 09:27:42 $138.0 +0.62% +0.37% -0.14% -0.18% -1.00% +0.64% - +0.29% WIN
2024-03-18 09:26:59 $134.0 -0.90% -0.47% -1.05% -0.87% -0.59% +0.59% -1.12% -0.16% LOSS
2024-03-05 09:27:20 $134.6 -0.69% -0.33% - -0.31% -0.42% +0.85% -1.11% -0.01% LOSS
2024-02-09 09:25:21 $133.51 -5.14% -2.87% -2.51% -2.92% -1.80% +0.08% -0.47% -2.17% LOSS
2023-12-13 09:26:00 $143.65 +1.01% +0.15% -0.01% +0.11% +0.87% +1.84% -0.98% +0.86% WIN
2023-11-29 09:25:00 $136.7 -0.34% +1.25% +1.28% -0.58% -0.69% +1.49% -0.74% -0.74% LOSS
2023-11-17 09:25:00 $134.26 -0.77% -1.00% -1.07% -0.42% +1.58% +2.41% -3.31% +0.03% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:26:00 $124.03 +1.75% +2.43% +4.33% +6.08% +5.08% +8.34% +0.38% +0.59% WIN
2023-11-03 09:26:00 $105.95 +5.66% +2.20% +4.47% +5.10% +6.38% +6.63% -0.22% +1.93% WIN
2023-11-02 09:25:00 $94.65 +1.67% +0.37% -0.01% -1.10% +0.20% +1.74% +0.25% +0.43% WIN
2023-10-31 09:26:00 $94.95 +0.28% -0.64% -0.72% -0.24% +0.36% +0.73% -0.94% +0.33% WIN
2023-09-18 09:28:00 $106.84 -1.11% -1.16% -0.89% +0.03% -1.03% +0.22% -1.29% -0.55% LOSS
2023-09-15 09:29:00 $106.17 +0.95% +1.10% +1.80% +2.37% +0.70% +2.79% -0.09% +0.50% WIN
2023-09-13 09:25:00 $109.14 +0.17% -0.32% -1.40% -2.06% -2.13% +0.58% -0.33% -0.33% WIN
2023-09-12 09:29:00 $107.49 +1.35% +2.61% +2.45% +1.68% +2.01% +3.02% - - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EXPE Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 55.8% win rate, EXPE has -0.04% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making EXPE profitable.

🔧 Fix EXPE Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze EXPE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EXPE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EXPE historically offers an average upside of +1.87% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EXPE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.8%, EXPE shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.20%) outweigh average wins (+0.89%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EXPE shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.04%). This suggests EXPE is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.