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EYE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-14 → 2024-08-07

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

National Vision Holdings, Inc. Common Stock OPHTHALMIC GOODS (SIC 3851)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 26, 2017 🔗 www.nationalvision.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.11B 👥 Employees: 13,411
National Vision Holdings Inc is an optical retailer in the U.S. Its product portfolio includes eyeglasses and sunglasses, contact lenses, accessories, and other products. The company has two operating segments; Owned and Host segment includes company-owned brands America's Best and Eyeglass World, In America's Best stores, vision care services are provided by optometrists or by independent professional corporations and Host operating consist of Military and Fred Meyer which provide eye exams by independent optometrists, and the Legacy segment manages the operations of, and supplies inventory and lab processing services to Legacy retail Vision Centers. It earns a majority of its revenue from the Owned and Host segment.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
44.4%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.16%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.41%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.23%
Avg Loser: -1.27%
Best: +2.14%
Worst: -3.61%
Trades: 4/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.90%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -2.44%
Best: +1.17%
Worst: -4.93%
Trades: 4/5

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.21%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -2.58%
Best: +2.19%
Worst: -6.11%
Trades: 3/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 22.2%
Avg Gain: -1.85%
Avg Winner: +2.17%
Avg Loser: -3.00%
Best: +2.42%
Worst: -5.82%
Trades: 2/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -3.94%
Avg Winner: +2.53%
Avg Loser: -7.17%
Best: +5.56%
Worst: -15.79%
Trades: 3/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.41%
Best MFE: +5.81%
Avg Time to MFE: 92 min

On average, EYE alerts reach +2.41% profit potential within 92 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.66%
Worst MAE: -3.81%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.66%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.46:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, EYE typically reaches +2.41% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 44.4%
Avg Gap -0.29%
Best Gap +2.71%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OPHTHALMIC GOODS

How EYE compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
EYE: -0.16% Sector: +0.86% -1.01%
EOD Gain
EYE: -3.94% Sector: +428.54% -432.47%
Avg MFE
EYE: +2.41% Sector: +8.76% -6.35%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical EYE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-07 09:29:25 $12.98 +1.98% +1.12% -1.69% -5.82% -15.79% +4.24% -3.62% -3.54% WIN
2023-07-28 09:29:00 $19.61 +2.14% +1.17% +2.07% +1.91% +5.56% +5.81% -1.53% -0.92% WIN
2023-07-27 09:27:00 $21.38 +0.14% -0.37% -0.42% -3.67% -9.68% +2.53% -2.25% -0.56% WIN
2023-03-20 09:29:00 $17.35 +0.63% +0.92% +2.19% +2.42% +0.92% +2.94% +0.40% +0.40% WIN
2023-03-17 09:25:00 $18.1 -0.39% -0.17% -0.69% -0.69% -4.14% +0.39% - +0.28% LOSS
2023-03-13 09:26:00 $19.99 -0.83% -2.35% -1.90% -2.65% -3.45% -0.70% -3.81% -1.05% LOSS
2023-03-10 09:29:00 $21.06 -3.61% -4.37% -4.68% -3.85% -4.70% +2.71% -2.18% +2.71% LOSS
2023-03-02 09:29:00 $22.63 -0.49% +0.86% +0.31% -0.18% +1.10% +2.39% -2.17% -0.35% LOSS
2022-06-14 09:25:00 $28.17 -1.03% -4.93% -6.11% -4.12% -5.25% +1.42% +0.25% +0.46% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ EYE Shows Negative Expectancy

With 44.4% win rate and -0.16% average gain, EYE alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider EYE for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze EYE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for EYE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, EYE historically offers an average upside of +2.41% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 EYE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 44.4%, EYE shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests EYE may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: EYE shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.16%). This suggests EYE is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.