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LAC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 134 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-03

🏢 Company Profile

Lithium Americas Corp. METAL MINING (SIC 1000)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 02, 2023 🔗 www.lithiumamericas.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.95B 👥 Employees: 79
Lithium Americas is a pure-play lithium producer. Following a deal with the US government, the firm will own 59% of one resource, Thacker Pass, which is located in northwest Nevada, with automaker General Motors owning 36% and the US government owning 5%. Thacker Pass is under construction and expected to begin production in 2028. Thacker Pass is one of the largest known lithium resources in the world. The project would be the first clay-based asset to enter production, and we estimate it will be in bottom half of the global cost curve. Management plans to develop Thacker Pass into a fully integrated lithium production site, with downstream refining capabilities on site, and will sell into the lithium chemical market.
📊
134
Total Alerts
🎯
49.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.13%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+3.96%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.3%
Avg Gain: -0.38%
Avg Winner: +1.43%
Avg Loser: -1.49%
Best: +9.04%
Worst: -5.32%
Trades: 50/82

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.8%
Avg Gain: -0.36%
Avg Winner: +2.18%
Avg Loser: -2.24%
Best: +6.32%
Worst: -9.47%
Trades: 56/76

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.8%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +2.64%
Avg Loser: -2.68%
Best: +11.74%
Worst: -8.99%
Trades: 60/72

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +2.90%
Avg Loser: -3.17%
Best: +12.86%
Worst: -8.32%
Trades: 64/69

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.6%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +4.04%
Avg Loser: -4.37%
Best: +16.85%
Worst: -14.85%
Trades: 66/65

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.96%
Best MFE: +17.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, LAC alerts reach +3.96% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.80%
Worst MAE: -12.73%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.80%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.21:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.21x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 134 alerts, LAC typically reaches +3.96% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 134
Gap Up % 31.3%
Avg Gap -0.30%
Best Gap +4.69%

🏭 Sector Comparison: METAL MINING

How LAC compares to 13 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LAC: -0.37% Sector: -0.11% -0.26%
EOD Gain
LAC: -0.13% Sector: +1.60% -1.73%
Avg MFE
LAC: +3.98% Sector: +3.29% +0.69%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LAC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-03 09:29:57 $2.91 -0.86% -1.20% -1.75% -1.03% -1.37% +1.20% -3.09% -1.03% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:27:02 $3.06 - -0.26% +1.80% +0.82% +4.58% +5.23% -0.65% +1.14% -
2025-01-07 09:26:55 $3.54 -0.28% -0.66% -0.56% -1.49% -3.11% +1.69% -0.56% +0.28% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:27:59 $3.23 +3.87% +3.87% +4.49% +4.95% +5.57% +8.20% -0.58% - WIN
2024-12-27 09:27:10 $3.17 - +2.44% +0.16% -3.00% -2.52% +2.79% -1.26% -0.63% -
2024-12-23 09:29:00 $3.03 +2.97% +4.62% +2.70% +1.65% +4.62% +6.60% -2.08% -0.66% WIN
2024-12-09 09:26:24 $3.58 +0.27% +3.77% +3.07% +0.40% +1.12% +4.89% -1.12% +0.28% WIN
2024-11-25 09:28:33 $4.03 +2.48% -0.62% -1.72% -0.99% +0.25% +2.98% -0.25% - WIN
2024-11-22 09:25:31 $3.91 -0.76% -0.71% -1.79% -0.90% +1.53% +2.30% -3.32% -2.30% LOSS
2024-11-19 09:29:43 $3.65 +0.14% +1.37% +1.78% +3.81% +2.47% +4.38% -2.47% -1.37% WIN
2024-11-15 09:28:29 $3.96 -4.75% -6.69% -5.76% -7.20% -6.06% -0.51% -4.04% -1.26% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:25:55 $4.3 -2.09% -4.42% -5.32% -5.23% -10.00% +0.70% +0.23% -1.40% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:28:25 $4.22 +2.25% +4.36% +1.54% +3.20% - +6.64% -0.59% -0.47% WIN
2024-11-12 09:28:30 $4.2 +4.29% +4.17% +0.38% +0.24% -2.62% +5.95% -0.92% +0.48% WIN
2024-11-11 09:29:34 $3.87 -1.55% +0.26% -0.26% -0.90% +9.30% +9.30% -3.62% +0.26% LOSS
2024-11-07 09:27:54 $3.97 -0.99% +0.98% +1.14% +2.64% +3.02% +8.06% -1.76% -0.25% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:27:50 $4.0 +1.25% -1.00% -0.12% +0.07% -1.25% +3.00% -0.75% - WIN
2024-11-04 09:29:07 $4.2 -3.69% -1.07% -2.15% +1.39% - +5.00% -4.40% -0.48% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:27:25 $4.24 +0.68% -0.30% +1.53% +3.49% +0.71% +5.90% -2.35% -0.24% WIN
2024-10-31 09:26:00 $4.07 +0.74% +2.66% -1.35% -2.83% +0.25% +4.67% -2.70% -0.25% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LAC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.6% win rate and -0.13% average gain, LAC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider LAC for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze LAC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LAC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LAC historically offers an average upside of +3.96% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LAC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.6%, LAC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests LAC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LAC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.13%). This suggests LAC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.