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FDMT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 10 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-15 → 2024-11-27

⚠️ Small sample size (10 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 11, 2020 🔗 www.4dmoleculartherapeutics.com
💰 Market Cap: $454.8M 👥 Employees: 227
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage gene therapy company engaged in the development of product candidates using targeted and evolved AAV vectors. It has built a portfolio of gene therapy product candidates focused on three therapeutic areas: Ophthalmology (intravitreal vector) includes 4D-150, 4D-125, 4D-110, and 4D-175; Cardiology (intravenous vector) includes 4D-710, 4D-725, and Pulmonology (aerosol vector) 4D-310.
📊
10
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-2.74%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+6.07%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -2.37%
Avg Winner: +4.20%
Avg Loser: -5.18%
Best: +5.81%
Worst: -13.84%
Trades: 3/7

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -3.43%
Avg Winner: +6.46%
Avg Loser: -5.90%
Best: +9.89%
Worst: -17.79%
Trades: 2/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -1.33%
Avg Winner: +10.36%
Avg Loser: -6.34%
Best: +17.59%
Worst: -18.14%
Trades: 3/7

60MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -2.32%
Avg Winner: +7.89%
Avg Loser: -6.70%
Best: +13.10%
Worst: -20.85%
Trades: 3/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.74%
Avg Winner: +7.79%
Avg Loser: -13.27%
Best: +20.58%
Worst: -37.48%
Trades: 5/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.07%
Best MFE: +24.52%
Avg Time to MFE: 150 min

On average, FDMT alerts reach +6.07% profit potential within 150 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.29%
Worst MAE: -18.40%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.29%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.84:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 10 alerts, FDMT typically reaches +6.07% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 10
Gap Up % 60.0%
Avg Gap +0.03%
Best Gap +1.86%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How FDMT compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FDMT: -2.37% Sector: -0.41% -1.95%
EOD Gain
FDMT: -2.74% Sector: +1233.50% -1236.24%
Avg MFE
FDMT: +6.07% Sector: +6.69% -0.62%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FDMT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-27 09:29:55 $7.75 -3.29% -2.58% -4.00% -3.23% +1.55% +1.81% -4.00% -3.10% LOSS
2024-08-07 09:27:17 $15.4 -0.65% -0.52% +0.39% -0.84% -4.48% +1.75% +0.58% +0.65% LOSS
2024-07-17 09:27:56 $29.11 -13.84% -17.79% -18.14% -20.85% -37.48% -0.63% -2.95% -0.76% LOSS
2024-02-08 09:25:00 $27.53 -0.71% -1.00% -1.74% -5.39% -2.29% +0.80% -0.18% -0.11% LOSS
2024-02-07 09:27:19 $32.95 -0.65% -6.27% -6.97% -1.70% -14.29% +3.10% +1.12% +1.21% LOSS
2024-02-05 09:28:27 $29.5 +4.92% +9.89% +17.59% +13.10% +9.46% +20.72% +0.51% +1.86% WIN
2023-06-08 09:26:00 $21.17 -6.52% -2.74% -3.61% -0.12% -7.79% - -7.75% -1.51% LOSS
2023-05-05 09:26:00 $16.01 +1.87% -0.06% -0.06% +4.12% +5.81% +6.25% -1.00% +0.56% WIN
2023-04-27 09:29:00 $16.25 -10.58% -16.28% -9.88% -14.78% +1.54% +2.37% -18.40% +0.49% LOSS
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $15.5 +5.81% +3.03% +13.09% +6.45% +20.58% +24.52% -0.84% +0.97% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ FDMT Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -2.74% average gain, FDMT alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider FDMT for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze FDMT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FDMT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FDMT historically offers an average upside of +6.07% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FDMT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, FDMT shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests FDMT may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FDMT shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -2.74%). This suggests FDMT is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.