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FDX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 50 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2024-12-20

⚠️ Small sample size (50 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 12, 1978 🔗 www.fedex.com
💰 Market Cap: $71.53B 👥 Employees: 880,000
FedEx pioneered overnight delivery in 1973 and remains the world's largest express package provider. In fiscal 2025, the firm's Federal Express segment-which houses the core package delivery operations-made up 86% of total revenue, with 10% coming from FedEx Freight, its asset-based less-than-truckload shipping segment. The remainder came from other services, including FedEx Office, which provides document production/shipping, and FedEx Logistics, which provides global forwarding. FedEx acquired Dutch parcel delivery firm TNT Express in 2016, boosting its presence across Europe. TNT was previously the fourth-largest global parcel delivery provider.
📊
50
Total Alerts
🎯
54.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.04%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.32%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.0%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +1.82%
Worst: -2.58%
Trades: 22/27

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.0%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +2.85%
Worst: -4.55%
Trades: 26/24

30MIN

Win Rate: 54.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.03%
Avg Loser: -1.31%
Best: +3.48%
Worst: -5.42%
Trades: 27/23

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +1.14%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +4.54%
Worst: -7.38%
Trades: 24/26

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +1.34%
Avg Loser: -1.54%
Best: +4.48%
Worst: -7.34%
Trades: 20/30

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.32%
Best MFE: +5.18%
Avg Time to MFE: 108 min

On average, FDX alerts reach +1.32% profit potential within 108 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.60%
Worst MAE: -3.88%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.60%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.18:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.18x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 50 alerts, FDX typically reaches +1.32% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 50
Gap Up % 26.0%
Avg Gap -0.18%
Best Gap +0.60%

🏭 Sector Comparison: AIR COURIER SERVICES

How FDX compares to 1 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FDX: -0.08% Sector: -0.08% +0.00%
EOD Gain
FDX: -0.39% Sector: -0.39% +0.00%
Avg MFE
FDX: +1.32% Sector: +1.32% +0.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FDX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-20 09:25:13 $297.56 -2.58% -4.55% -5.42% -7.38% -7.34% +0.48% -0.52% -1.20% LOSS
2024-09-20 09:28:41 $260.4 -0.10% -1.24% -1.66% -1.78% -2.21% +0.83% -0.53% +0.14% LOSS
2024-06-26 09:25:26 $289.3 +1.19% +0.10% -0.59% +1.09% +2.38% +2.61% -1.83% -0.30% WIN
2024-04-01 09:27:47 $284.35 +0.82% +0.25% +0.24% -0.06% -1.48% +0.96% -0.30% -0.04% WIN
2024-03-22 09:25:41 $290.3 -1.34% -0.95% -1.80% -0.89% -2.06% +0.33% -1.48% -1.48% LOSS
2024-03-01 09:26:44 $248.25 +0.04% -0.28% -0.34% -0.07% -0.66% +0.37% -0.55% -0.08% WIN
2024-02-14 09:28:36 $237.68 -0.55% -0.50% -0.37% -0.43% -0.36% +0.01% -0.12% -0.11% LOSS
2023-12-21 09:29:00 $248.2 -0.31% -0.48% -1.03% -0.55% -0.34% +0.22% -0.17% -0.04% LOSS
2023-12-20 09:28:00 $246.65 +1.73% +1.82% +1.54% +1.82% -0.16% +2.44% -0.24% -0.06% WIN
2023-12-04 09:26:00 $263.5 +0.21% +0.87% +1.53% +1.23% +0.80% +1.63% -0.61% -0.33% WIN
2023-09-21 09:26:00 $262.99 +0.63% +1.24% +0.10% +0.08% -0.43% +2.05% -1.12% -0.38% WIN
2023-09-18 09:29:00 $254.08 -0.01% -0.45% -0.65% -0.55% -1.88% +0.24% -0.11% -0.11% LOSS
2023-09-13 09:26:00 $251.98 -0.43% -0.38% -0.53% -0.31% +0.07% +1.08% -0.82% -0.42% LOSS
2023-09-01 09:29:00 $262.65 -0.10% -0.02% +0.17% -0.25% -0.64% +0.37% -0.49% +0.04% LOSS
2023-08-22 09:25:00 $258.4 +0.39% +1.01% +0.80% +0.89% +0.22% +1.14% +0.27% +0.60% WIN
2023-08-17 09:28:00 $265.18 +0.22% +0.63% +0.41% +0.31% -0.10% +0.64% -0.14% -0.01% WIN
2023-08-03 09:28:00 $265.0 -0.66% -0.34% -0.25% -0.18% -0.56% +0.45% -0.76% -0.15% LOSS
2023-08-01 09:26:00 $270.9 -0.71% -0.36% -0.18% -1.00% -1.01% -0.12% -0.78% -0.60% LOSS
2023-07-27 09:26:00 $268.54 +0.22% -0.69% -0.15% +0.36% -1.18% +0.64% -0.85% +0.08% WIN
2023-06-21 09:26:00 $224.13 +1.82% +2.62% +3.08% +2.51% +0.76% +3.67% -0.50% -0.15% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ FDX Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 54.0% win rate, FDX has -0.04% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making FDX profitable.

🔧 Fix FDX Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze FDX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FDX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FDX historically offers an average upside of +1.32% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FDX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.0%, FDX shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.31%) outweigh average wins (+1.03%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FDX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.04%). This suggests FDX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.