Latest signal:
FDX Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 50 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-07 → 2024-12-20
⚠️ Small sample size (50 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, FDX alerts reach +1.32% profit potential within 108 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.60%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.18x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 50 alerts, FDX typically reaches +1.32% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: AIR COURIER SERVICES
How FDX compares to 1 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical FDX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-20 | 09:25:13 | $297.56 | -2.58% | -4.55% | -5.42% | -7.38% | -7.34% | +0.48% | -0.52% | -1.20% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-20 | 09:28:41 | $260.4 | -0.10% | -1.24% | -1.66% | -1.78% | -2.21% | +0.83% | -0.53% | +0.14% | LOSS |
| 2024-06-26 | 09:25:26 | $289.3 | +1.19% | +0.10% | -0.59% | +1.09% | +2.38% | +2.61% | -1.83% | -0.30% | WIN |
| 2024-04-01 | 09:27:47 | $284.35 | +0.82% | +0.25% | +0.24% | -0.06% | -1.48% | +0.96% | -0.30% | -0.04% | WIN |
| 2024-03-22 | 09:25:41 | $290.3 | -1.34% | -0.95% | -1.80% | -0.89% | -2.06% | +0.33% | -1.48% | -1.48% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-01 | 09:26:44 | $248.25 | +0.04% | -0.28% | -0.34% | -0.07% | -0.66% | +0.37% | -0.55% | -0.08% | WIN |
| 2024-02-14 | 09:28:36 | $237.68 | -0.55% | -0.50% | -0.37% | -0.43% | -0.36% | +0.01% | -0.12% | -0.11% | LOSS |
| 2023-12-21 | 09:29:00 | $248.2 | -0.31% | -0.48% | -1.03% | -0.55% | -0.34% | +0.22% | -0.17% | -0.04% | LOSS |
| 2023-12-20 | 09:28:00 | $246.65 | +1.73% | +1.82% | +1.54% | +1.82% | -0.16% | +2.44% | -0.24% | -0.06% | WIN |
| 2023-12-04 | 09:26:00 | $263.5 | +0.21% | +0.87% | +1.53% | +1.23% | +0.80% | +1.63% | -0.61% | -0.33% | WIN |
| 2023-09-21 | 09:26:00 | $262.99 | +0.63% | +1.24% | +0.10% | +0.08% | -0.43% | +2.05% | -1.12% | -0.38% | WIN |
| 2023-09-18 | 09:29:00 | $254.08 | -0.01% | -0.45% | -0.65% | -0.55% | -1.88% | +0.24% | -0.11% | -0.11% | LOSS |
| 2023-09-13 | 09:26:00 | $251.98 | -0.43% | -0.38% | -0.53% | -0.31% | +0.07% | +1.08% | -0.82% | -0.42% | LOSS |
| 2023-09-01 | 09:29:00 | $262.65 | -0.10% | -0.02% | +0.17% | -0.25% | -0.64% | +0.37% | -0.49% | +0.04% | LOSS |
| 2023-08-22 | 09:25:00 | $258.4 | +0.39% | +1.01% | +0.80% | +0.89% | +0.22% | +1.14% | +0.27% | +0.60% | WIN |
| 2023-08-17 | 09:28:00 | $265.18 | +0.22% | +0.63% | +0.41% | +0.31% | -0.10% | +0.64% | -0.14% | -0.01% | WIN |
| 2023-08-03 | 09:28:00 | $265.0 | -0.66% | -0.34% | -0.25% | -0.18% | -0.56% | +0.45% | -0.76% | -0.15% | LOSS |
| 2023-08-01 | 09:26:00 | $270.9 | -0.71% | -0.36% | -0.18% | -1.00% | -1.01% | -0.12% | -0.78% | -0.60% | LOSS |
| 2023-07-27 | 09:26:00 | $268.54 | +0.22% | -0.69% | -0.15% | +0.36% | -1.18% | +0.64% | -0.85% | +0.08% | WIN |
| 2023-06-21 | 09:26:00 | $224.13 | +1.82% | +2.62% | +3.08% | +2.51% | +0.76% | +3.67% | -0.50% | -0.15% | WIN |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ FDX Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 54.0% win rate, FDX has -0.04% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making FDX profitable.
🔧 Fix FDX Risk/Reward →Why Analyze FDX with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FDX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, FDX historically offers an average upside of +1.32% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 FDX Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 54.0%, FDX shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.31%) outweigh average wins (+1.03%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: FDX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.04%). This suggests FDX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.