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FLYW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-31 → 2024-02-28

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Flywire Corporation Voting Common Stock SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC (SIC 7389)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 26, 2021 🔗 www.flywire.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.68B 👥 Employees: 1,382
Flywire Corp provides a secure payment platform, offering its clients a streamlined process to receive reconciled domestic and international payments more cost-effectively and efficiently. The company's solutions are built on three core elements namely a payments platform; a proprietary payment network and vertical-specific software backed by its deep industry expertise. Geographically, the majority of revenue is from the Americas.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-2.21%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -2.21%
Avg Winner: +0.66%
Avg Loser: -4.13%
Best: +0.74%
Worst: -6.65%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.30%
Avg Winner: +2.52%
Avg Loser: -2.25%
Best: +2.52%
Worst: -6.93%
Trades: 1/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.96%
Avg Winner: +2.06%
Avg Loser: -2.96%
Best: +2.06%
Worst: -8.33%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.96%
Avg Winner: +2.26%
Avg Loser: -3.01%
Best: +2.26%
Worst: -7.71%
Trades: 1/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -2.05%
Avg Winner: +2.45%
Avg Loser: -5.05%
Best: +3.52%
Worst: -8.27%
Trades: 2/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.53%
Best MFE: +3.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 144 min

On average, FLYW alerts reach +2.53% profit potential within 144 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.71%
Worst MAE: -4.99%
Avg Time to MAE: 3 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.71%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.93:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, FLYW typically reaches +2.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 20.0%
Avg Gap -1.04%
Best Gap +0.06%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

How FLYW compares to 59 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FLYW: -2.21% Sector: -0.05% -2.17%
EOD Gain
FLYW: -2.05% Sector: +1758.96% -1761.01%
Avg MFE
FLYW: +2.53% Sector: +2.89% -0.36%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FLYW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-28 09:29:58 $31.45 -6.65% -6.93% -8.33% -7.71% -8.27% +0.29% -3.82% +0.06% LOSS
2023-08-10 09:28:00 $32.3 +0.74% +2.52% +2.06% +2.26% -3.44% +3.34% -1.08% -0.12% WIN
2022-07-07 09:25:00 $20.43 -2.84% -0.64% -0.59% -1.13% +3.52% +3.60% -4.99% -1.62% LOSS
2022-06-07 09:25:00 $18.99 -2.90% -0.79% -1.58% -0.79% +1.37% +3.32% -2.90% -2.79% LOSS
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $20.0 +0.57% -0.65% -1.35% -2.42% -3.45% +2.10% -0.75% -0.75% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ FLYW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -2.21% average gain, FLYW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider FLYW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze FLYW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FLYW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FLYW historically offers an average upside of +2.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FLYW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, FLYW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests FLYW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FLYW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -2.21%). This suggests FLYW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.