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FRGE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-28 → 2024-03-26

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 22, 2022 🔗 www.forgeglobal.com
💰 Market Cap: $616.8M 👥 Employees: 300
Forge Global Holdings Inc is a financial service platform created to serve the needs of the private market. It provides marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology solutions for private market participants. The company offers a trusted trading platform, proprietary data and insights to inform investment strategies, along with custody services to help companies, shareholders, institutions and accredited investors confidently navigate and transact in the private market.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
42.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+579.59%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+9.34%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: +1.93%
Avg Winner: +12.24%
Avg Loser: -2.20%
Best: +21.03%
Worst: -4.45%
Trades: 2/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 14.3%
Avg Gain: -5.82%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: -6.85%
Best: +0.36%
Worst: -12.10%
Trades: 1/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.30%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -8.52%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -12.63%
Trades: 0/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -4.82%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -7.22%
Best: +2.09%
Worst: -8.67%
Trades: 2/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +579.59%
Avg Winner: +1362.78%
Avg Loser: -7.81%
Best: +1482.36%
Worst: -10.16%
Trades: 3/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.34%
Best MFE: +27.01%
Avg Time to MFE: 10 min

On average, FRGE alerts reach +9.34% profit potential within 10 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.95%
Worst MAE: -10.03%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.95%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.37:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.37x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, FRGE typically reaches +9.34% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 7.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 28.6%
Avg Gap -0.20%
Best Gap +1.72%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SECURITY & COMMODITY BROKERS, DEALERS, EXCHANGES & SERVICES

How FRGE compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FRGE: +1.93% Sector: +0.12% +1.81%
EOD Gain
FRGE: +579.59% Sector: +56.70% +522.89%
Avg MFE
FRGE: +9.34% Sector: +1.84% +7.50%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FRGE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-26 09:28:25 $2.81 -4.45% -12.10% -12.63% -7.12% +1314.59% +1.78% -0.36% -0.36% LOSS
2024-03-25 09:27:35 $2.9 +21.03% -8.66% -6.90% -7.59% +1291.38% +22.76% -4.48% +1.72% WIN
2022-08-31 09:25:00 $3.91 +3.45% -1.15% - +0.26% -2.30% +7.42% -2.56% +0.26% WIN
2022-08-05 09:25:00 $5.71 -4.29% -5.34% -11.73% -7.00% -10.16% -0.53% -0.88% -0.70% LOSS
2022-06-09 09:25:00 $11.87 -0.17% -9.44% -5.64% -5.73% -9.35% +0.51% -4.72% -0.08% LOSS
2022-03-31 09:25:00 $37.4 -1.67% -4.41% -5.78% +2.09% -9.41% +27.01% -10.03% -1.07% LOSS
2022-03-28 09:25:00 $19.67 -0.41% +0.36% -8.44% -8.67% +1482.36% +6.46% -4.63% -1.17% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 42.9% Baseline on FRGE

The 42.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push FRGE's performance to 75%+.

Optimize FRGE Strategy →

Why Analyze FRGE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FRGE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FRGE historically offers an average upside of +9.34% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FRGE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 42.9%, FRGE shows choppy price action, requiring strict filters or quick profit-taking.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show FRGE performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +579.59%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.