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FROG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-09 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

JFrog Ltd. Ordinary Shares SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 16, 2020 🔗 www.jfrog.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.91B 👥 Employees: 1,600
JFrog Ltd provides an end-to-end, hybrid, universal DevOps Platform that powers and controls the software supply chain, enabling organizations to continuously and securely deliver software updates across any system. Its product portfolio includes JFrog Artifactory; JFrog Pipelines; JFrog Xray; JFrog Distribution; JFrog Artifactory Edge; JFrog Mission Control and JFrog Insight. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Israel and also has its presence in United States, India and other regions.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
37.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.86%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.02%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.86%
Avg Winner: +1.97%
Avg Loser: -2.56%
Best: +3.00%
Worst: -4.47%
Trades: 3/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.61%
Avg Winner: +5.59%
Avg Loser: -2.68%
Best: +5.89%
Worst: -6.23%
Trades: 2/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.94%
Avg Winner: +3.74%
Avg Loser: -3.74%
Best: +7.29%
Worst: -7.03%
Trades: 3/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.32%
Avg Winner: +4.91%
Avg Loser: -3.45%
Best: +7.73%
Worst: -6.06%
Trades: 3/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.33%
Avg Winner: +2.96%
Avg Loser: -2.30%
Best: +5.84%
Worst: -6.57%
Trades: 3/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.02%
Best MFE: +8.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 73 min

On average, FROG alerts reach +3.02% profit potential within 73 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.65%
Worst MAE: -3.11%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.65%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.83:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, FROG typically reaches +3.02% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 62.5%
Avg Gap +0.10%
Best Gap +2.20%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How FROG compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
FROG: -0.86% Sector: -0.09% -0.77%
EOD Gain
FROG: -0.33% Sector: +73.64% -73.97%
Avg MFE
FROG: +3.02% Sector: +4.32% -1.30%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical FROG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:12 $42.6 -2.93% -6.23% -7.03% -6.06% -6.57% +0.94% +0.70% +0.94% LOSS
2024-10-11 09:29:47 $31.32 -4.47% -3.03% -4.34% -3.29% -0.86% +1.88% -2.33% +0.57% LOSS
2024-08-08 09:29:23 $24.86 -2.19% -4.46% -4.53% -4.04% -0.72% +3.14% -1.41% +1.33% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:26:26 $45.01 +3.00% +5.89% +3.80% +7.73% +5.84% +8.44% -1.69% +2.20% WIN
2023-11-07 09:29:00 $26.03 +1.81% +5.30% +7.29% +6.64% +1.04% +8.49% +0.23% +1.42% WIN
2023-07-20 09:29:00 $29.8 -0.94% -0.77% -1.43% -2.18% -2.05% -0.34% -2.65% -1.01% LOSS
2023-06-01 09:27:00 $24.34 -2.26% -0.74% -1.40% -1.68% -1.31% -0.70% -2.96% -1.56% LOSS
2023-02-09 09:25:00 $23.12 +1.10% -0.82% +0.13% +0.36% +1.99% +2.34% -3.11% -3.11% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ FROG Shows Negative Expectancy

With 37.5% win rate and -0.86% average gain, FROG alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider FROG for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze FROG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for FROG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, FROG historically offers an average upside of +3.02% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 FROG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 37.5%, FROG shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests FROG may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: FROG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.86%). This suggests FROG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.