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GBTC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 111 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-02-08 → 2025-02-07

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Feb 25, 2015
📊
111
Total Alerts
🎯
55.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.07%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.95%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.0%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.33%
Avg Loser: -0.26%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -0.83%
Trades: 61/49

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.2%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -0.48%
Best: +2.28%
Worst: -1.60%
Trades: 59/50

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.3%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.84%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: +3.94%
Worst: -2.87%
Trades: 58/52

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.5%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -0.86%
Best: +6.10%
Worst: -2.57%
Trades: 56/54

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 55.0%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.85%
Avg Loser: -2.03%
Best: +6.95%
Worst: -8.41%
Trades: 61/50

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.95%
Best MFE: +11.24%
Avg Time to MFE: 165 min

On average, GBTC alerts reach +1.95% profit potential within 165 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.58%
Worst MAE: -2.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.58%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 111 alerts, GBTC typically reaches +1.95% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 111
Gap Up % 55.9%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +0.45%

🏭 Sector Comparison: COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS

How GBTC compares to 41 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GBTC: +0.07% Sector: -0.01% +0.08%
EOD Gain
GBTC: +0.10% Sector: +257.70% -257.60%
Avg MFE
GBTC: +1.95% Sector: +1.89% +0.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GBTC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-07 09:26:23 $78.93 +0.14% +0.16% +0.26% -1.36% -3.90% +0.63% -0.38% +0.09% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:02 $75.01 +1.01% +1.43% +1.84% +4.00% +6.88% +7.89% -0.25% +0.20% WIN
2025-01-30 09:27:49 $83.14 +0.30% +0.28% +0.90% +0.73% +0.05% +1.58% -0.11% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:14 $79.83 +0.41% +0.15% +1.28% +0.68% +0.53% +1.55% -0.31% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-23 09:28:10 $81.03 +1.36% +2.28% +2.49% +1.81% +1.07% +4.54% +0.02% +0.11% WIN
2025-01-21 09:28:51 $83.15 -0.71% -1.18% -1.61% -1.20% +1.17% +2.30% -2.10% +0.23% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:26:59 $81.5 +0.07% -0.22% +0.66% +0.87% +1.90% +3.19% -0.35% -0.01% WIN
2025-01-15 09:29:14 $78.25 +0.27% +0.38% +0.81% +1.11% +0.92% +2.12% -0.05% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-10 09:28:52 $74.86 -0.09% -0.08% -0.27% -1.24% +0.29% +1.56% -2.34% -0.01% LOSS
2025-01-06 09:29:47 $78.56 +0.03% +0.81% +1.82% +2.94% +3.16% +3.67% -0.17% -0.06% WIN
2024-12-30 09:25:06 $73.57 -0.01% -0.64% -0.91% -1.40% +1.47% +2.22% -1.74% +0.12% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:36 $75.5 +0.38% +0.64% +0.42% +2.04% +1.28% +2.81% -0.32% -0.09% WIN
2024-12-10 09:26:49 $77.8 +0.09% -0.46% -0.28% -0.93% -1.59% +0.39% -0.86% +0.05% WIN
2024-12-09 09:28:15 $78.6 +0.08% +0.63% +1.37% -0.80% -2.89% +1.55% -0.10% +0.09% WIN
2024-12-06 09:29:42 $78.92 -0.20% -0.48% +0.09% +0.01% +2.26% +2.80% -0.70% +0.03% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:29:26 $81.63 +0.64% +0.65% +0.97% -0.55% -3.60% +0.99% -0.13% +0.09% WIN
2024-12-04 09:29:47 $76.16 +0.62% +0.38% -0.12% +0.24% +3.32% +3.65% -1.30% -0.08% WIN
2024-12-02 09:29:48 $76.22 +0.54% +0.81% +0.52% +0.83% -0.25% +1.64% -0.18% -0.01% WIN
2024-11-29 09:28:49 $77.41 -0.06% +0.32% +0.88% +0.92% -0.41% +1.56% -0.18% -0.05% LOSS
2024-11-27 09:25:59 $75.09 -0.21% +0.25% +0.35% +0.08% +2.30% +3.09% -0.25% +0.08% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 55.0% Baseline on GBTC

The 55.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push GBTC's performance to 75%+.

Optimize GBTC Strategy →

Why Analyze GBTC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GBTC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GBTC historically offers an average upside of +1.95% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GBTC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.0%, GBTC shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show GBTC performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.