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GDX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 732 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

VanEck Gold Miners ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Nov 21, 2008
📊
732
Total Alerts
🎯
48.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.24%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 42.4%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.38%
Avg Loser: -0.38%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 310/410

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.9%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -0.59%
Best: +2.34%
Worst: -3.94%
Trades: 321/400

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.9%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -0.71%
Best: +2.60%
Worst: -3.08%
Trades: 343/381

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.4%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -0.85%
Best: +4.18%
Worst: -4.02%
Trades: 332/394

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.30%
Best: +6.34%
Worst: -6.59%
Trades: 352/373

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.24%
Best MFE: +7.27%
Avg Time to MFE: 125 min

On average, GDX alerts reach +1.24% profit potential within 125 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.53%
Worst MAE: -3.37%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.53%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.35:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.35x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 732 alerts, GDX typically reaches +1.24% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 732
Gap Up % 39.8%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +0.58%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GDX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:44 $42.63 -0.70% -0.89% -1.03% -2.08% -3.64% +0.07% -0.19% -0.07% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:25:25 $42.31 -0.83% -1.02% -0.86% -0.41% +0.47% +0.66% -1.39% -0.13% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:37 $41.4 +0.33% +0.19% +0.34% +0.56% +1.76% +2.61% -0.72% -0.10% WIN
2025-02-11 09:28:33 $41.57 -0.06% +0.32% +0.02% +0.23% -0.31% +0.79% -0.43% +0.36% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:25:39 $41.91 -0.06% -0.17% -0.10% +0.55% +0.12% +0.72% -0.26% +0.10% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:25:49 $41.34 - -0.34% -0.22% +0.21% -1.16% +0.99% -0.60% +0.41% -
2025-02-06 09:25:50 $41.08 -0.37% -0.37% -0.73% -0.57% +0.12% +0.19% -1.00% -0.02% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:29:01 $40.28 +1.39% +1.61% +1.95% +2.56% +1.89% +3.10% +0.17% +0.22% WIN
2025-02-04 09:29:20 $39.91 -0.04% +0.20% -0.03% +0.45% +0.30% +0.67% -0.60% -0.11% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:30 $39.14 +0.17% +0.77% +1.64% +0.84% +1.07% +1.99% -0.41% +0.20% WIN
2025-01-31 09:29:22 $39.54 -0.08% -0.28% +0.09% -0.13% -1.47% +0.35% -0.58% -0.05% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:44 $38.63 +0.02% +1.01% +1.01% +2.10% +2.04% +2.85% -0.16% +0.08% WIN
2025-01-27 09:27:28 $37.5 -0.96% -0.52% -0.40% -0.68% -0.40% +0.24% -0.85% +0.24% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:27:50 $37.98 -0.03% +0.08% -0.18% +0.39% -0.08% +0.47% -0.08% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:26:53 $37.17 +0.22% -0.32% -0.28% -0.40% +0.89% +0.94% -0.89% -0.13% WIN
2025-01-22 09:26:48 $37.93 -0.47% -1.05% -1.19% -1.09% -1.05% +0.32% -0.21% +0.18% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:27:05 $37.18 +0.46% +0.75% +1.26% +2.04% +1.16% +2.07% -0.19% -0.19% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:53 $36.29 -0.25% +0.55% +1.02% +1.38% +1.27% +2.00% -0.47% +0.11% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:26:24 $36.9 +0.37% +0.49% +0.43% +0.39% -0.76% +0.75% +0.00% +0.19% WIN
2025-01-15 09:26:45 $36.81 -0.62% -0.81% -1.01% -1.15% -0.24% +0.30% -0.49% -0.05% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ GDX Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.2% win rate and -0.01% average gain, GDX alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider GDX for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze GDX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GDX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GDX historically offers an average upside of +1.24% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GDX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.2%, GDX shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests GDX may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: GDX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.01%). This suggests GDX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.