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GPK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-31 → 2024-12-02

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Graphic Packaging Holding Company PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES (SIC 2650)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 10, 1992 🔗 www.graphicpkg.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.56B 👥 Employees: 23,000
Graphic Packaging Holding Co is a holding company that manufactures and sells a variety of paper-based consumer packaging products through its subsidiaries. The company's reportable segments are; Paperboard Manufacturing, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The majority of the revenue is generated from its Americas Paperboard Packaging segment which includes paperboard packaging sold predominantly to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies and cups, lids and food containers sold to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants (QSR) serving the food, beverage, and consumer product markets in the Americas. Geographically, the company generates revenue from the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific regions.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.34%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.39%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +3.73%
Worst: -1.37%
Trades: 3/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.90%
Avg Loser: -1.10%
Best: +3.69%
Worst: -1.80%
Trades: 2/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +2.07%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +3.97%
Worst: -1.65%
Trades: 2/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 16.7%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +4.56%
Avg Loser: -1.07%
Best: +4.56%
Worst: -2.35%
Trades: 1/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.95%
Avg Loser: -1.99%
Best: +4.52%
Worst: -2.63%
Trades: 3/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.47%
Best MFE: +5.25%
Avg Time to MFE: 112 min

On average, GPK alerts reach +1.47% profit potential within 112 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: +0.13%
Worst MAE: -0.98%
Avg Time to MAE: 27 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.13%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

11.21:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 11.21x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, GPK typically reaches +1.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap +0.50%
Best Gap +3.76%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES

How GPK compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
GPK: +0.34% Sector: +0.43% -0.08%
EOD Gain
GPK: -0.02% Sector: +340.77% -340.79%
Avg MFE
GPK: +1.47% Sector: +4.39% -2.92%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical GPK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-02 09:26:40 $28.97 +3.73% +3.69% +3.97% +4.56% +4.52% +5.25% +3.14% +3.76% WIN
2024-10-01 09:25:20 $29.59 +0.41% -0.35% -0.03% -0.27% +0.51% +1.28% -0.74% +0.34% WIN
2024-06-03 09:27:31 $28.54 -0.74% -1.40% -1.65% -1.66% -2.63% -0.46% -0.98% -0.56% LOSS
2024-04-01 09:27:48 $29.18 -1.37% -1.80% -1.65% -2.35% -1.75% +0.14% -0.38% -0.38% LOSS
2023-06-01 09:28:00 $23.96 +0.04% +0.10% +0.17% -0.12% +0.83% +1.44% -0.25% -0.17% WIN
2022-08-31 09:25:00 $22.63 - -0.84% -0.44% -0.93% -1.59% +1.19% - - -

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on GPK

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push GPK's performance to 75%+.

Optimize GPK Strategy →

Why Analyze GPK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for GPK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, GPK historically offers an average upside of +1.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 GPK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, GPK shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show GPK performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.34%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.