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HCA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 40 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2024-10-25

⚠️ Small sample size (40 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 10, 2011 🔗 www.hcahealthcare.com
💰 Market Cap: $107.45B 👥 Employees: 316,000
HCA Healthcare is a Nashville-based healthcare provider organization operating the largest collection of acute-care hospitals in the United States. As of December 2024, the firm owned and operated 190 hospitals, 124 freestanding outpatient surgery centers, and a broad network of physician offices, urgent-care clinics, and freestanding emergency rooms across 20 states and a small foothold in England.
📊
40
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.30%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.74%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +2.95%
Worst: -2.20%
Trades: 20/20

15MIN

Win Rate: 57.5%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +1.18%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +3.82%
Worst: -5.29%
Trades: 23/17

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.0%
Avg Gain: +0.25%
Avg Winner: +1.27%
Avg Loser: -1.00%
Best: +3.33%
Worst: -3.17%
Trades: 22/18

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.27%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +3.99%
Worst: -4.96%
Trades: 24/16

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 55.0%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -1.92%
Best: +5.13%
Worst: -11.20%
Trades: 22/18

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.74%
Best MFE: +6.07%
Avg Time to MFE: 134 min

On average, HCA alerts reach +1.74% profit potential within 134 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.47%
Worst MAE: -5.66%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.47%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.72:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.72x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 40 alerts, HCA typically reaches +1.74% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 40
Gap Up % 47.5%
Avg Gap +0.07%
Best Gap +1.89%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL HOSPITALS, NEC

How HCA compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HCA: +0.18% Sector: +0.14% +0.04%
EOD Gain
HCA: +0.12% Sector: +0.30% -0.17%
Avg MFE
HCA: +1.74% Sector: +3.00% -1.26%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HCA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-25 09:28:27 $368.8 -2.08% -0.61% -1.44% -0.87% -1.42% +0.60% -1.30% +0.33% LOSS
2024-02-22 09:28:27 $311.32 +0.15% +0.75% +0.70% +1.02% +0.49% +2.24% -0.56% -0.10% WIN
2023-12-06 09:26:00 $252.51 +0.48% +0.17% +0.35% +0.66% -0.05% +1.01% +0.04% +0.30% WIN
2023-11-10 09:25:00 $227.56 +0.68% +0.45% +0.30% -0.31% +2.31% +3.02% -0.47% +0.48% WIN
2023-10-24 09:29:00 $219.27 +2.95% +1.92% +1.84% +3.99% +4.95% +6.07% -1.51% -0.24% WIN
2023-09-21 09:27:00 $253.64 -0.21% +0.09% -0.07% +0.00% -0.08% +0.65% -0.38% -0.34% LOSS
2023-09-11 09:29:00 $268.7 +1.45% +1.73% +1.66% +1.67% +1.41% +2.05% +1.82% +1.89% WIN
2023-08-17 09:26:00 $266.45 +0.16% +0.74% +0.38% -0.01% -0.32% +0.86% -0.12% -0.12% WIN
2023-08-07 09:26:00 $268.69 +0.82% +0.69% +0.50% +0.79% +1.45% +1.46% +0.39% +0.49% WIN
2023-07-20 09:26:00 $286.76 +0.87% +0.31% -0.29% -0.09% +0.05% +1.13% -0.56% +0.61% WIN
2023-07-17 09:27:00 $296.56 -0.47% -1.11% -1.47% -1.40% -1.58% -0.28% -0.69% -0.60% LOSS
2023-07-03 09:26:00 $303.0 -1.83% -2.27% -2.15% -3.14% -1.79% -0.54% -0.99% -0.84% LOSS
2023-05-30 09:25:00 $264.01 -0.12% +1.13% +1.78% +0.87% +0.06% +1.84% -0.26% -0.18% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:29:00 $277.78 -0.48% -0.84% -1.16% -1.36% -1.34% -0.23% -0.51% -0.35% LOSS
2023-05-05 09:26:00 $277.63 +0.75% +1.31% +0.86% +0.32% +0.15% +1.45% +0.40% +0.62% WIN
2023-05-04 09:27:00 $280.67 -0.32% -0.50% -0.64% -1.48% -1.08% -0.12% -0.73% -0.73% LOSS
2023-04-21 09:27:00 $287.36 +0.95% +0.65% -0.61% -0.51% -2.14% +2.32% -0.73% +0.09% WIN
2022-11-22 09:25:00 $231.56 -0.20% -0.21% +0.23% +0.46% +1.37% +1.80% -0.32% -0.03% LOSS
2022-10-21 09:25:00 $189.01 -2.20% -5.29% -0.81% -0.39% +4.05% +4.80% -5.66% -2.87% LOSS
2022-09-12 09:25:00 $221.6 -1.10% -0.92% -0.28% -0.14% +0.34% +0.37% -1.17% -0.97% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 60.0% Baseline on HCA

The 60.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HCA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HCA Strategy →

Why Analyze HCA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HCA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HCA historically offers an average upside of +1.74% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HCA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, HCA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HCA performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.30%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.