FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

HLMN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-13 → 2023-06-07

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock CUTLERY, HANDTOOLS & GENERAL HARDWARE (SIC 3420)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 15, 2021 🔗 www.hillmangroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.90B 👥 Employees: 3,886
Hillman Solutions Corp is a provider of hardware-related products and related merchandising services to retail markets in North America. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets. Its product lines include thousands of small parts such as fasteners and related hardware items; threaded rod and metal shapes; keys and accessories; builder's hardware; personal protective equipment, such as gloves and eye-wear; and identification items, such as tags and letters, numbers, and signs. The segments of the company are Hardware and Protective Solutions, which is the key revenue-generating segment; Robotics and Digital Solutions; and Canada. It has a business presence in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
80.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.23%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.90%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -3.96%
Best: +1.77%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 4/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +1.06%
Avg Winner: +3.50%
Avg Loser: -2.59%
Best: +5.06%
Worst: -4.85%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +1.97%
Avg Winner: +3.56%
Avg Loser: -4.41%
Best: +4.86%
Worst: -4.41%
Trades: 4/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +2.70%
Avg Winner: +4.43%
Avg Loser: -4.24%
Best: +6.15%
Worst: -4.24%
Trades: 4/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +4.18%
Avg Winner: +5.67%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: +7.97%
Worst: -1.76%
Trades: 4/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.90%
Best MFE: +8.78%
Avg Time to MFE: 249 min

On average, HLMN alerts reach +5.90% profit potential within 249 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.47%
Worst MAE: -5.18%
Avg Time to MAE: 20 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.47%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.03:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.03x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, HLMN typically reaches +5.90% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 80.0%
Avg Gap -0.39%
Best Gap +1.01%

🏭 Sector Comparison: CUTLERY, HANDTOOLS & GENERAL HARDWARE

How HLMN compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HLMN: +0.23% Sector: +0.28% -0.05%
EOD Gain
HLMN: +4.18% Sector: +1.85% +2.33%
Avg MFE
HLMN: +5.90% Sector: +3.66% +2.24%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HLMN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-06-07 09:26:00 $9.08 -3.96% -4.85% -4.41% -4.24% -1.76% -1.49% -5.18% -4.41% LOSS
2023-05-11 09:27:00 $7.92 +1.77% +1.77% +2.02% +3.79% +5.56% +8.02% - +0.38% WIN
2023-03-01 09:27:00 $7.9 +1.52% +5.06% +4.43% +6.01% +7.97% +8.35% -0.38% +1.01% WIN
2022-11-08 09:25:00 $7.4 +0.54% -0.34% +4.86% +6.15% +4.19% +8.78% -1.08% +0.68% WIN
2022-04-13 09:25:00 $10.11 +1.29% +3.66% +2.92% +1.78% +4.95% +5.84% -0.69% +0.40% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 80.0% Baseline on HLMN

The 80.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HLMN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HLMN Strategy →

Why Analyze HLMN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HLMN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HLMN historically offers an average upside of +5.90% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HLMN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 80.0%, HLMN shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HLMN performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.23%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.