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HLT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 32 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-01 → 2024-11-08

⚠️ Small sample size (32 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. HOTELS & MOTELS (SIC 7011)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 12, 2013 🔗 www.hilton.com
💰 Market Cap: $69.29B 👥 Employees: 181,000
Hilton Worldwide Holdings operates 1.3 million rooms across its 25 brands, serving the premium economy through luxury segments. Hampton and Hilton are the two largest brands, representing 27% and 18%, respectively, of the company's total rooms, as of Dec. 31, 2024. Recent brands launched over the past few years include Home2, Curio, Canopy, Spark, Tru, Tempo, LivSmart, and Outset. Additionally, there is a partnership with Small Luxury Hotels of the World and acquisitions of NoMad and Graduate Hotels. Managed and franchised hotels represent the vast majority of adjusted EBITDA, predominantly from the Americas.
📊
32
Total Alerts
🎯
71.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.50%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.48%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.2%
Avg Gain: +0.29%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -0.53%
Best: +2.97%
Worst: -1.09%
Trades: 18/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.22%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -0.65%
Best: +2.65%
Worst: -3.63%
Trades: 16/16

30MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.32%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +3.58%
Worst: -3.02%
Trades: 20/12

60MIN

Win Rate: 56.2%
Avg Gain: +0.39%
Avg Winner: +1.24%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +3.39%
Worst: -3.33%
Trades: 18/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 71.9%
Avg Gain: +0.50%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -1.10%
Best: +3.23%
Worst: -2.17%
Trades: 23/9

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.48%
Best MFE: +4.19%
Avg Time to MFE: 158 min

On average, HLT alerts reach +1.48% profit potential within 158 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.30%
Worst MAE: -3.88%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.30%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.97:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.97x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 32 alerts, HLT typically reaches +1.48% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 32
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.12%
Best Gap +2.41%

🏭 Sector Comparison: HOTELS & MOTELS

How HLT compares to 15 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HLT: +0.29% Sector: +0.06% +0.22%
EOD Gain
HLT: +0.50% Sector: -0.05% +0.55%
Avg MFE
HLT: +1.48% Sector: +2.24% -0.76%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HLT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-08 09:27:47 $247.22 +0.09% +0.11% +0.48% +0.39% +0.17% +0.78% -0.37% -0.28% WIN
2024-08-28 09:26:30 $218.6 -0.09% -0.54% -0.67% -0.72% -0.70% -0.09% -0.57% -0.34% LOSS
2024-08-16 09:28:04 $212.0 -0.71% -0.27% -0.53% -0.61% +0.22% +0.48% -0.97% -0.75% LOSS
2024-06-20 09:28:24 $217.46 -0.56% -0.23% -0.18% -0.13% +0.16% +0.45% -0.92% -0.80% LOSS
2024-06-04 09:28:32 $198.98 -0.22% +0.26% +0.67% +1.20% +0.73% +1.39% -0.98% -0.98% LOSS
2024-05-10 09:27:19 $201.56 +1.63% +1.94% +2.41% +2.67% +3.23% +3.36% +1.45% +1.61% WIN
2024-02-28 09:27:32 $203.92 -0.20% -0.05% +0.09% +0.49% +0.02% +0.77% -0.50% -0.50% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:25:24 $192.7 +0.76% +0.85% +1.05% +1.13% +1.80% +2.00% +0.38% +0.42% WIN
2024-02-06 09:29:59 $193.89 -0.78% -0.86% -0.55% -0.26% +0.38% +0.47% -1.01% +0.02% LOSS
2023-11-10 09:26:00 $159.0 -0.21% +0.23% -0.02% +0.38% +1.76% +2.06% -0.86% -0.40% LOSS
2023-10-24 09:25:00 $148.72 +0.19% +0.20% +0.07% +0.79% +0.63% +1.02% -0.09% +0.10% WIN
2023-10-04 09:27:00 $146.77 +0.80% +1.57% +1.38% +1.30% +2.88% +3.25% +0.25% +0.25% WIN
2023-09-25 09:29:00 $146.99 +1.15% +0.56% +0.61% +0.55% +0.56% +1.15% -0.67% -0.31% WIN
2023-09-14 09:25:00 $155.2 -0.23% -0.28% -0.32% -0.63% +0.61% +0.78% -0.89% -0.51% LOSS
2023-09-13 09:25:00 $155.02 +0.35% -0.17% -1.06% -1.08% -1.05% +0.35% -0.08% +0.17% WIN
2023-09-06 09:25:00 $148.58 -0.48% -0.02% +0.17% +0.73% +0.42% +0.97% -0.48% -0.48% LOSS
2023-08-30 09:29:00 $149.0 +0.85% +0.99% +1.28% +1.16% +0.95% +1.73% +0.29% +0.56% WIN
2023-08-03 09:27:00 $151.0 -1.09% -0.61% -1.08% -1.59% -0.23% +0.19% -1.81% -0.13% LOSS
2023-06-21 09:27:00 $139.45 +0.02% -0.05% +0.34% +0.98% +1.22% +1.94% -0.19% +0.09% WIN
2023-05-12 09:29:00 $141.75 +0.21% +0.37% +0.17% +0.21% -0.12% +0.49% -0.33% -0.14% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 71.9% Baseline on HLT

The 71.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HLT's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HLT Strategy →

Why Analyze HLT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HLT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HLT historically offers an average upside of +1.48% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HLT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.9%, HLT shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HLT performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.50%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.