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MGM Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 58 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-02-13

⚠️ Small sample size (58 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL HOTELS & MOTELS (SIC 7011)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 12, 1997 🔗 www.mgmresorts.com
💰 Market Cap: $9.31B 👥 Employees: 78,000
MGM Resorts is the largest resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with 37,000 guest rooms and suites, representing about one fourth of all units in the market. The company's Vegas properties include MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, Luxor, New York-New York, and Bellagio. The Strip contributed approximately 59% of total EBITDAR in 2024. MGM also owns US regional assets, which represented a low 20s share of 2024 EBITDAR (MGM's Macao EBITDAR was 21% of the total in 2024). MGM's US sports and i-gaming operations are currently a high-single-digit percentage of its total revenue. The company also operates the 56%-owned MGM China casinos with a second property that opened on the Cotai Strip in early 2018. We estimate MGM will open a resort in Japan in 2030.
📊
58
Total Alerts
🎯
55.2%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.13%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.86%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +2.41%
Worst: -5.12%
Trades: 27/29

15MIN

Win Rate: 53.4%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +2.51%
Worst: -6.96%
Trades: 31/26

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.4%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +1.24%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +3.34%
Worst: -7.56%
Trades: 31/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.2%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.37%
Avg Loser: -1.39%
Best: +5.04%
Worst: -7.14%
Trades: 32/26

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 43.1%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +1.71%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +7.80%
Worst: -6.30%
Trades: 25/33

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.86%
Best MFE: +8.10%
Avg Time to MFE: 113 min

On average, MGM alerts reach +1.86% profit potential within 113 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.65%
Worst MAE: -2.74%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.65%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.87:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.87x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 58 alerts, MGM typically reaches +1.86% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 58
Gap Up % 43.1%
Avg Gap +0.08%
Best Gap +3.01%

🏭 Sector Comparison: HOTELS & MOTELS

How MGM compares to 15 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MGM: +0.03% Sector: +0.06% -0.04%
EOD Gain
MGM: -0.28% Sector: -0.05% -0.23%
Avg MFE
MGM: +1.86% Sector: +2.24% -0.38%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MGM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-13 09:27:57 $38.37 +1.72% +1.12% +1.90% +2.14% +5.21% +6.20% -0.83% +0.47% WIN
2024-12-13 09:27:00 $36.81 -0.19% - -0.31% -0.42% -1.52% +0.27% -0.27% - LOSS
2024-12-10 09:29:48 $36.75 -1.18% -0.98% -1.13% -0.98% -0.63% +0.71% -0.41% -0.27% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:25:13 $38.4 -0.44% -1.39% -0.77% -0.89% -0.29% +0.18% -0.47% +0.18% LOSS
2024-05-02 09:26:22 $43.05 -0.19% -3.58% -4.53% -3.14% -5.06% +1.05% -1.21% +1.05% LOSS
2024-02-29 09:26:39 $42.8 -0.64% -0.28% -0.49% -0.37% +1.12% +1.31% -1.07% -0.30% LOSS
2024-02-14 09:26:52 $45.68 -5.12% -6.96% -7.56% -7.14% -6.30% -2.58% -2.63% -3.46% LOSS
2023-11-16 09:29:00 $40.59 +0.34% +0.32% -0.44% -0.37% -0.94% +0.68% -0.47% -0.39% WIN
2023-11-15 09:26:00 $40.3 +0.87% +1.29% +1.12% +1.91% +0.82% +2.51% -0.27% -0.10% WIN
2023-11-08 09:29:00 $38.7 -0.35% +0.65% +0.71% +0.61% -0.13% +1.30% -0.72% -0.18% LOSS
2023-11-06 09:29:00 $38.37 -0.16% -0.73% -0.85% -0.72% -0.23% +0.27% -1.09% -0.36% LOSS
2023-10-06 09:29:00 $35.82 -0.92% -1.55% -1.03% -0.53% +1.84% +3.46% -2.23% -0.03% LOSS
2023-08-03 09:25:00 $46.5 +2.41% +0.14% -1.06% -1.10% -1.59% +4.00% +0.72% +3.01% WIN
2023-06-06 09:28:00 $40.65 +0.15% +0.05% +1.05% +1.28% +1.62% +2.41% -0.25% -0.07% WIN
2023-06-01 09:27:00 $39.02 -0.51% -0.20% +0.28% +0.13% +0.26% +1.20% -0.87% +0.46% LOSS
2023-05-30 09:26:00 $40.63 +0.18% -0.44% -1.40% -1.94% -2.44% +0.47% -0.15% -0.15% WIN
2023-05-26 09:25:00 $40.14 +0.20% +0.75% +1.00% +0.97% +0.62% +1.47% -0.02% +0.07% WIN
2023-05-25 09:25:00 $40.14 -0.20% -0.17% +0.82% -0.15% -0.45% +1.43% -0.44% -0.10% LOSS
2023-05-23 09:26:00 $42.1 -0.55% -1.38% -1.25% -1.60% -4.58% - - -0.33% LOSS
2023-05-11 09:28:00 $42.86 -0.28% +0.15% -0.16% -0.49% -0.79% +0.49% -0.77% -0.33% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 55.2% Baseline on MGM

The 55.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MGM's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MGM Strategy →

Why Analyze MGM with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MGM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MGM historically offers an average upside of +1.86% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MGM Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.2%, MGM shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MGM performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.13%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.