FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

HMY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 383 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 30, 1996 🔗 www.harmony.co.za
💰 Market Cap: $14.72B 👥 Employees: 34,350
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd is engaged in gold mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, and processing. The group's primary product is gold bullion, produced at operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. Gold byproducts include uranium and silver. Strategic projects such as the Wafi-Golpu Project in the New Guinea Mobile Belt, the Eva Copper Project in the Mt Isa Inlier, Queensland, Australia, and the MAC Copper acquisition position the company as a gold-copper producer. The company operates across South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia.
📊
383
Total Alerts
🎯
48.2%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.15%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.5%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.66%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: +4.56%
Worst: -2.82%
Trades: 151/201

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.7%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.99%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +3.64%
Worst: -4.10%
Trades: 167/203

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.15%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +5.00%
Worst: -4.83%
Trades: 178/189

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.51%
Avg Loser: -1.51%
Best: +5.67%
Worst: -5.47%
Trades: 184/189

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +2.36%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +9.55%
Worst: -9.11%
Trades: 179/193

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.15%
Best MFE: +10.07%
Avg Time to MFE: 112 min

On average, HMY alerts reach +2.15% profit potential within 112 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.85%
Worst MAE: -5.66%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.85%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.53:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.53x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 383 alerts, HMY typically reaches +2.15% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 383
Gap Up % 31.1%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +4.91%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HMY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:55 $11.75 -0.60% -0.89% -0.68% -1.66% -2.81% +0.60% -0.17% +0.17% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:25:07 $11.86 -1.05% -1.10% -0.97% -0.63% +0.67% +0.76% -1.73% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:28:15 $11.84 +0.04% -0.42% -0.68% -0.55% +0.34% +1.86% -1.77% +0.59% WIN
2025-02-11 09:26:10 $12.08 -0.17% -0.22% +0.04% +1.20% +0.17% +2.57% -0.54% - LOSS
2025-02-06 09:28:43 $11.98 -1.09% -0.54% -1.29% -1.21% +1.34% +1.34% -1.84% -0.17% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:27:34 $11.92 +0.13% +0.04% +0.29% +0.96% -0.25% +1.85% -0.17% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-04 09:25:03 $11.81 +0.08% -0.68% -0.47% +0.68% +0.34% +1.02% -0.89% -0.25% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:28 $11.63 -0.60% -0.56% +0.30% -0.21% +1.46% +3.18% -1.07% +0.09% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:29:24 $11.45 -0.92% -0.61% -0.13% -0.17% -1.57% +0.70% -1.35% -0.61% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:26:40 $11.25 -0.80% -0.36% -0.22% +1.06% +0.89% +1.69% -1.07% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:25:08 $10.8 -0.28% +1.39% +2.04% +1.85% +0.93% +2.41% -0.60% -0.46% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:26:29 $10.74 -0.47% -0.74% -1.72% -2.10% -0.65% +0.47% -0.14% +0.09% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:26:10 $10.71 -0.61% +0.09% +0.28% -0.70% -1.77% +0.37% -0.98% -0.19% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:27 $10.83 -0.37% -0.23% -0.65% +0.14% +0.37% +1.15% -0.83% - LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:45 $10.38 -0.10% -0.43% +0.24% +0.53% +0.77% +1.30% -0.92% -0.19% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:18 $10.57 -1.14% -0.90% -0.47% -0.14% -1.14% +0.56% -1.89% -0.09% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:55 $10.17 +0.10% +0.59% +0.93% +1.97% +0.29% +2.06% -0.49% -0.10% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:17 $9.68 -0.57% +0.31% +0.93% +1.05% +0.93% +1.96% -1.03% +0.10% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:26:48 $9.87 -1.98% -1.11% -1.17% -1.67% -4.15% +0.20% - -0.71% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:25:11 $9.85 -1.50% -1.65% -2.64% -3.55% -3.05% -0.20% -0.20% -0.61% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ HMY Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.2% win rate and -0.02% average gain, HMY alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider HMY for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze HMY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HMY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HMY historically offers an average upside of +2.15% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HMY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.2%, HMY shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests HMY may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: HMY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.02%). This suggests HMY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.