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Latest signal:

HOG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2023-12-27

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 08, 1986 🔗 www.harley-davidson.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.40B 👥 Employees: 5,900
Harley-Davidson is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles across the custom, cruising, and touring categories, as well as related merchandise, parts, and accessories. In recent years, the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand. Its captive finance arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley captured around 37% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2024.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+1.79%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+4.49%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -0.93%
Best: +1.92%
Worst: -2.69%
Trades: 3/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +0.54%
Avg Winner: +0.84%
Avg Loser: -0.95%
Best: +1.74%
Worst: -0.95%
Trades: 5/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +1.03%
Avg Winner: +1.42%
Avg Loser: -0.89%
Best: +2.93%
Worst: -0.89%
Trades: 5/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +1.79%
Avg Winner: +1.79%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +4.71%
Worst: +0.44%
Trades: 6/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.86%
Avg Winner: +3.54%
Avg Loser: -1.51%
Best: +7.39%
Worst: -2.15%
Trades: 4/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.49%
Best MFE: +7.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 104 min

On average, HOG alerts reach +4.49% profit potential within 104 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.23%
Worst MAE: -3.21%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.23%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.66:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.66x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, HOG typically reaches +4.49% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.11%
Best Gap +2.88%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTORCYCLES, BICYCLES & PARTS

How HOG compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HOG: +0.04% Sector: +0.61% -0.56%
EOD Gain
HOG: +1.86% Sector: +0.30% +1.56%
Avg MFE
HOG: +4.49% Sector: +4.09% +0.40%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HOG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-27 09:25:00 $36.63 +0.25% +0.76% +0.85% +1.04% +1.39% +2.10% +0.13% +0.14% WIN
2023-07-27 09:27:00 $38.53 -0.05% +1.74% +1.13% +2.88% -2.15% +4.57% -1.25% +0.18% LOSS
2022-10-26 09:25:00 $40.0 +0.90% -0.95% -0.89% +0.62% +4.50% +5.92% -1.75% +0.40% WIN
2022-07-28 09:25:00 $36.64 -0.05% +1.01% +0.93% +0.44% +0.87% +3.11% -0.38% -0.38% LOSS
2022-05-19 09:25:00 $32.71 -2.69% +0.60% +1.25% +1.07% -0.86% +3.73% -3.21% -2.54% LOSS
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $38.86 +1.92% +0.08% +2.93% +4.71% +7.39% +7.49% -0.90% +2.88% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on HOG

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push HOG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize HOG Strategy →

Why Analyze HOG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HOG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HOG historically offers an average upside of +4.49% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HOG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, HOG shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show HOG performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.79%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.