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HRTG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-03-03 → 2024-10-07

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE (SIC 6331)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: May 23, 2014 🔗 www.heritagepci.com
💰 Market Cap: $787.9M 👥 Employees: 540
Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc is a regional property and casualty insurance company that offers a variety of personal and commercial insurance products. Through its subsidiaries, Heritage Property & Casualty Insurance, Narragansett Bay Insurance, and Zephyr Insurance, the company issues personal residential property insurance in various states in the United States. It also offers commercial residential insurance predominantly for its Florida properties. Heritage Insurance manages insurance underwriting, customer services, actuarial analysis, distribution, and claims processing internally. Company operates in Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.75%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+5.55%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -2.17%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -4.37%
Best: +1.23%
Worst: -5.47%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -1.75%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -5.99%
Best: +1.30%
Worst: -6.65%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -3.72%
Avg Winner: +1.73%
Avg Loser: -7.35%
Best: +3.16%
Worst: -10.33%
Trades: 2/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -4.11%
Avg Winner: +5.26%
Avg Loser: -6.46%
Best: +5.26%
Worst: -12.76%
Trades: 1/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.43%
Avg Winner: +5.49%
Avg Loser: -7.16%
Best: +8.01%
Worst: -11.05%
Trades: 3/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.55%
Best MFE: +11.75%
Avg Time to MFE: 207 min

On average, HRTG alerts reach +5.55% profit potential within 207 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.13%
Worst MAE: -9.81%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.13%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.34:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, HRTG typically reaches +5.55% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 60.0%
Avg Gap -0.51%
Best Gap +1.14%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

How HRTG compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HRTG: -2.17% Sector: +0.01% -2.17%
EOD Gain
HRTG: +0.43% Sector: +58.36% -57.93%
Avg MFE
HRTG: +5.55% Sector: +2.97% +2.57%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HRTG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-07 09:29:43 $10.5 -4.67% -5.33% -10.33% -12.76% -11.05% +1.14% +0.67% +1.14% LOSS
2024-03-12 09:28:37 $8.87 -5.47% -6.65% -7.55% -6.54% +0.90% +2.82% -9.81% -0.23% LOSS
2023-12-15 09:27:00 $6.73 +1.04% +0.89% +0.30% -1.49% -3.27% +2.53% -0.30% +0.15% WIN
2023-09-26 09:26:00 $5.7 +1.23% +1.05% +3.16% +5.26% +7.54% +11.75% -1.40% +0.53% WIN
2023-03-03 09:27:00 $3.37 -2.97% +1.30% -4.16% -5.04% +8.01% +9.50% -9.79% -4.15% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ HRTG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 60.0% win rate, HRTG has -1.75% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making HRTG profitable.

🔧 Fix HRTG Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze HRTG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HRTG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HRTG historically offers an average upside of +5.55% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HRTG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, HRTG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-5.99%) outweigh average wins (+1.08%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: HRTG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.75%). This suggests HRTG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.