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HSY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 51 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-28 → 2025-02-06

⚠️ Small sample size (51 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 19, 1947 🔗 www.thehersheycompany.com
💰 Market Cap: $38.77B 👥 Employees: 20,030
Hershey is a leading US confectionery manufacturer (around a $54 billion market, according to Euromonitor), controlling around 36% of the domestic chocolate aisle. Beyond its namesake label, the firm's portfolio has expanded over the last 85 years and now comprises 100 brands, including Reese's, Kit Kat, Kisses, and Ice Breakers. Hershey's products are sold in about 80 countries, albeit with just a high-single-digit percentage of sales coming from markets outside the US, including Brazil, India, and Mexico. The firm has sought inorganic opportunities to extend its reach beyond its core confectionery business, adding Amplify Snack Brands and its Skinny Pop ready-to-eat popcorn to its portfolio, as well as Pirate Brands and Dot's Pretzels over the past few years.
📊
51
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.03%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.79%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.0%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.41%
Avg Loser: -0.39%
Best: +1.46%
Worst: -1.96%
Trades: 25/26

15MIN

Win Rate: 39.2%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -0.59%
Best: +1.16%
Worst: -1.96%
Trades: 20/31

30MIN

Win Rate: 35.3%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -0.72%
Best: +1.58%
Worst: -2.09%
Trades: 18/33

60MIN

Win Rate: 31.4%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.65%
Avg Loser: -0.57%
Best: +1.25%
Worst: -1.93%
Trades: 16/35

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -0.98%
Best: +2.68%
Worst: -3.96%
Trades: 27/24

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.79%
Best MFE: +3.42%
Avg Time to MFE: 155 min

On average, HSY alerts reach +0.79% profit potential within 155 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.42%
Worst MAE: -2.35%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.89:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 51 alerts, HSY typically reaches +0.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 51
Gap Up % 49.0%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +1.36%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SUGAR & CONFECTIONERY PRODUCTS

How HSY compares to 1 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
HSY: -0.00% Sector: -0.00% +0.00%
EOD Gain
HSY: -0.03% Sector: -0.03% +0.00%
Avg MFE
HSY: +0.79% Sector: +0.79% +0.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical HSY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-06 09:26:12 $154.0 +0.58% +0.36% -2.09% -1.01% -1.08% +1.75% +0.01% +0.81% WIN
2024-12-11 09:28:53 $178.47 +0.92% -0.24% -1.30% -1.93% -0.82% +2.66% -2.35% +0.10% WIN
2024-11-08 09:27:21 $172.76 +0.25% +0.44% +0.91% -0.17% +1.68% +1.78% -0.41% -0.15% WIN
2024-09-26 09:27:21 $188.93 +0.22% +0.27% +0.26% +0.66% +0.84% +1.62% +0.04% +0.20% WIN
2024-03-20 09:26:34 $203.99 -0.73% -1.03% -0.91% -1.04% -2.92% +0.10% -0.88% -0.88% LOSS
2024-02-26 09:25:08 $193.65 +0.28% -0.21% -0.43% -0.75% -2.60% +0.53% +0.09% +0.15% WIN
2024-02-12 09:25:28 $193.11 -0.21% -1.08% -1.03% -0.30% +0.32% +0.78% -1.82% -1.61% LOSS
2023-11-30 09:29:00 $186.05 -0.49% -0.94% -0.61% -0.01% +1.01% +1.12% -1.00% -0.03% LOSS
2023-11-28 09:26:00 $189.01 -0.23% -0.27% -0.08% -0.15% -0.01% +0.28% -0.58% -0.30% LOSS
2023-11-24 09:28:00 $191.62 -0.10% -0.45% -0.88% -0.37% +0.03% +0.67% +0.67% +0.57% LOSS
2023-11-10 09:29:00 $189.14 -0.07% -0.13% +0.17% +0.55% +1.24% +1.50% -0.34% -0.11% LOSS
2023-08-25 09:27:00 $214.5 +0.48% +0.57% +0.14% +0.21% +1.31% +1.62% +0.07% +0.30% WIN
2023-08-24 09:28:00 $215.32 +0.22% +0.52% +0.53% +0.34% -0.67% +0.67% -0.06% +0.17% WIN
2023-08-14 09:27:00 $223.57 +0.47% -0.10% -0.19% -0.08% +0.35% +0.55% +0.26% +0.41% WIN
2023-07-21 09:29:00 $245.5 +0.25% +0.49% +0.86% +1.25% +0.46% +1.40% -0.17% -0.04% WIN
2023-07-20 09:28:00 $243.13 +0.06% +0.50% +0.76% +1.06% +1.02% +1.26% -0.07% +0.12% WIN
2023-07-18 09:29:00 $239.4 +0.42% +0.56% +0.26% +0.56% +0.18% +1.52% -0.25% +0.06% WIN
2023-06-05 09:25:00 $262.24 -0.46% -0.31% -0.27% -0.48% -1.05% -0.12% -0.54% -0.54% LOSS
2023-06-02 09:28:00 $257.47 +0.69% +1.16% +0.89% +1.02% +1.34% +1.62% +0.16% +0.16% WIN
2023-06-01 09:28:00 $260.41 -0.28% +0.04% -0.08% -0.05% -0.29% +0.33% -0.29% -0.01% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ HSY Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.9% win rate, HSY has -0.03% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making HSY profitable.

🔧 Fix HSY Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze HSY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for HSY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, HSY historically offers an average upside of +0.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 HSY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, HSY shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.98%) outweigh average wins (+0.82%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: HSY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.03%). This suggests HSY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.