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IEF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 158 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-12

🏢 Company Profile

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 02, 2017
📊
158
Total Alerts
🎯
51.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.27%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.05%
Avg Loser: -0.05%
Best: +0.19%
Worst: -0.70%
Trades: 75/73

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.08%
Avg Loser: -0.09%
Best: +0.32%
Worst: -0.93%
Trades: 73/77

30MIN

Win Rate: 41.8%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.11%
Avg Loser: -0.11%
Best: +0.39%
Worst: -0.98%
Trades: 66/86

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.16%
Avg Loser: -0.15%
Best: +0.64%
Worst: -1.12%
Trades: 73/83

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.9%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.30%
Avg Loser: -0.34%
Best: +1.67%
Worst: -1.46%
Trades: 82/75

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.27%
Best MFE: +1.73%
Avg Time to MFE: 150 min

On average, IEF alerts reach +0.27% profit potential within 150 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.10%
Worst MAE: -1.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 28 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.10%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.61:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.61x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 158 alerts, IEF typically reaches +0.27% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 158
Gap Up % 43.7%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +0.10%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical IEF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:26:20 $92.19 +0.06% +0.01% -0.04% -0.07% +0.05% +0.14% -0.12% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-07 09:29:31 $93.13 +0.07% +0.01% -0.04% -0.12% +0.01% +0.10% - +0.02% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:56 $93.1 -0.09% -0.10% -0.15% -0.12% -0.03% +0.05% -0.25% -0.02% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:29:54 $92.76 -0.10% -0.08% -0.10% -0.04% - +0.07% -0.16% -0.01% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:25:23 $92.06 +0.05% +0.04% +0.05% +0.11% +0.11% +0.18% -0.01% +0.08% WIN
2025-01-10 09:27:41 $91.46 -0.04% +0.10% -0.01% +0.11% -0.14% +0.19% -0.12% -0.01% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:26:41 $91.73 -0.03% +0.03% +0.09% +0.16% +0.29% +0.32% -0.05% -0.02% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:29:12 $94.64 -0.02% -0.04% -0.07% -0.06% +0.26% +0.39% -0.15% -0.03% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:27:27 $94.44 -0.01% -0.07% -0.04% -0.02% +0.18% +0.21% -0.13% +0.02% LOSS
2024-11-18 09:27:14 $93.28 -0.02% +0.01% -0.04% -0.05% +0.27% +0.33% -0.11% - LOSS
2024-11-08 09:26:45 $94.13 +0.12% +0.12% +0.15% +0.34% +0.07% +0.37% +0.04% +0.07% WIN
2024-11-06 09:29:44 $93.05 +0.04% -0.03% +0.10% +0.14% +0.21% +0.49% -0.04% -0.01% WIN
2024-11-01 09:28:45 $94.37 +0.02% +0.10% -0.06% -0.18% -0.74% +0.10% -0.03% -0.01% WIN
2024-10-21 09:29:38 $95.56 +0.03% +0.03% -0.07% -0.11% -0.38% +0.04% -0.01% +0.01% WIN
2024-10-11 09:26:39 $95.71 - +0.05% +0.02% +0.01% +0.16% +0.26% -0.03% +0.02% -
2024-10-04 09:28:39 $96.55 +0.10% +0.17% +0.21% +0.11% -0.08% +0.24% - +0.02% WIN
2024-10-02 09:26:38 $97.74 -0.02% -0.03% -0.06% +0.01% +0.17% +0.21% -0.11% +0.01% LOSS
2024-09-27 09:26:20 $98.24 -0.05% +0.04% +0.07% -0.01% +0.15% +0.20% -0.09% -0.01% LOSS
2024-09-26 09:28:30 $98.14 +0.03% -0.09% -0.07% -0.25% -0.14% +0.06% -0.03% +0.01% WIN
2024-09-24 09:25:16 $98.07 +0.01% -0.03% -0.01% +0.25% +0.41% +0.44% -0.06% +0.02% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ IEF Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.9% win rate, IEF has -0.01% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making IEF profitable.

🔧 Fix IEF Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze IEF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for IEF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, IEF historically offers an average upside of +0.27% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 IEF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.9%, IEF shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.34%) outweigh average wins (+0.30%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: IEF shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.01%). This suggests IEF is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.