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ITW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-12-28 → 2023-12-28

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 13, 1973 🔗 www.itw.com
💰 Market Cap: $74.92B 👥 Employees: 44,000
Founded in 1912, Illinois Tool Works has become a diversified industrial manufacturer through acquisitions and innovations that follow customer needs. ITW operates through seven business segments, with no segment representing more than one-fifth of revenue. ITW' automotive OEM segment sells vehicle components; its food equipment segment sells commercial kitchen appliances; its test and measurement and electronics segment sells inspection and analysis equipment; its welding segment sells welding equipment and consumables; its polymers and fluids segment sells industrial and consumer adhesives, solvents, and coatings; its construction products segment sells building fasteners and tools; and its specialty products segment sells medical, packaging, HVAC, and airport ground equipment.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.64%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
-0.38%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.64%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: -0.64%
Worst: -0.64%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.99%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: -0.99%
Worst: -0.99%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.57%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.57%
Best: -0.57%
Worst: -0.57%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.63%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: -0.63%
Worst: -0.63%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.68%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: -0.68%
Worst: -0.68%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -0.38%
Best MFE: -0.38%
Avg Time to MFE: 375 min

On average, ITW alerts reach -0.38% profit potential within 375 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.99%
Worst MAE: -0.99%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.99%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.38:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, ITW typically reaches -0.38% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.63%
Best Gap -0.63%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GENERAL INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT

How ITW compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ITW: -0.64% Sector: +0.23% -0.87%
EOD Gain
ITW: -0.68% Sector: -0.03% -0.64%
Avg MFE
ITW: -0.38% Sector: +3.98% -4.36%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ITW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-28 09:29:00 $263.67 -0.64% -0.99% -0.57% -0.63% -0.68% -0.38% -0.99% -0.63% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ITW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -0.64% average gain, ITW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ITW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ITW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ITW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ITW historically offers an average upside of -0.38% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ITW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, ITW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ITW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ITW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.64%). This suggests ITW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.