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KBH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 13 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-13 → 2025-01-15

⚠️ Small sample size (13 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 01, 1986 🔗 www.kbhome.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.73B 👥 Employees: 2,384
KB Home is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction in the United States. The company builds single-family homes and communities across different geographical segments which include the West Coast which also derives the majority of the revenue, Southwest, Central, and Southeast. The company operates in several markets and focuses on first-time and move-up homebuyers. It also invests in land acquisition and development to support future building activities and is also engaged in financial services operations which includes providing mortgage banking services through its joint venture with a third party.
📊
13
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.33%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.21%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 23.1%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +0.29%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +0.30%
Worst: -2.09%
Trades: 3/10

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +1.91%
Avg Loser: -2.15%
Best: +4.20%
Worst: -5.79%
Trades: 6/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.33%
Avg Winner: +1.45%
Avg Loser: -2.39%
Best: +2.73%
Worst: -5.94%
Trades: 7/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: -0.44%
Avg Winner: +1.46%
Avg Loser: -2.65%
Best: +3.44%
Worst: -7.89%
Trades: 7/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 38.5%
Avg Gain: -0.80%
Avg Winner: +2.11%
Avg Loser: -3.00%
Best: +5.38%
Worst: -6.72%
Trades: 5/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.21%
Best MFE: +6.62%
Avg Time to MFE: 82 min

On average, KBH alerts reach +2.21% profit potential within 82 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.60%
Worst MAE: -3.85%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.60%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.38:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 13 alerts, KBH typically reaches +2.21% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 13
Gap Up % 46.2%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +0.88%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OPERATIVE BUILDERS

How KBH compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
KBH: -0.56% Sector: +0.15% -0.71%
EOD Gain
KBH: -0.80% Sector: -0.42% -0.39%
Avg MFE
KBH: +2.21% Sector: +2.02% +0.19%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KBH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-15 09:27:10 $70.84 -0.27% -2.01% -2.14% -2.79% -3.27% +1.55% +0.30% +0.88% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:27:09 $72.01 -1.51% -5.79% -5.94% -7.89% -6.72% +0.87% -2.08% -0.53% LOSS
2024-09-25 09:27:26 $82.75 -0.74% +1.56% +1.77% +0.73% - +2.15% -1.68% +0.54% LOSS
2024-03-21 09:28:22 $71.47 +0.30% -0.41% -2.70% -2.53% -3.99% +0.74% -0.90% -0.11% WIN
2023-06-22 09:26:00 $51.79 -1.14% -1.94% -1.30% -0.81% -0.46% +0.46% -3.34% -0.29% LOSS
2023-01-17 09:28:00 $34.85 +0.30% +0.72% +1.09% +1.22% +0.98% +1.61% +0.30% +0.72% WIN
2023-01-12 09:25:00 $34.8 -0.14% -2.79% -2.10% +0.10% +0.32% +1.12% -3.65% -0.89% LOSS
2022-09-22 09:25:00 $27.32 -2.09% -1.68% -0.18% -1.08% -2.64% +0.60% -3.00% -0.40% LOSS
2022-06-23 09:25:00 $27.53 -0.29% +1.89% +1.09% +3.44% +3.49% +4.74% -0.94% +0.07% LOSS
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $34.87 -0.06% +1.08% +0.37% -0.80% -2.58% +1.69% -0.60% -0.09% LOSS
2022-03-24 09:25:00 $34.84 -1.15% -0.40% +2.50% +0.83% -1.32% +3.82% -3.85% -1.16% LOSS
2022-01-14 09:25:00 $48.85 +0.27% +2.01% +0.57% +0.90% +0.39% +2.76% +0.02% +0.72% WIN
2022-01-13 09:25:00 $46.86 -0.81% +4.20% +2.73% +2.99% +5.38% +6.62% -1.43% +0.21% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KBH Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 53.8% win rate, KBH has -0.33% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making KBH profitable.

🔧 Fix KBH Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze KBH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KBH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KBH historically offers an average upside of +2.21% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KBH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, KBH shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.39%) outweigh average wins (+1.45%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KBH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.33%). This suggests KBH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.