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KGC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 266 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Kinross Gold Corporation
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 17, 1981 🔗 www.kinross.com
💰 Market Cap: $45.71B 👥 Employees: 6,800
Kinross Gold is a Canada-based gold producer, producing roughly 2.1 million gold equivalent ounces in 2024. The company had about a decade of gold reserves at the end of 2024. It operates mines in the Americas and West Africa after selling its low-cost Russian operations in 2022 in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Kinross has historically used acquisitions to fuel expansion into new regions and production growth. In 2022, Kinross purchased the Great Bear project in Canada. If developed as we think likely, it could produce an average of more than 500,000 ounces of gold per year for at least a decade, with its unit cash costs likely in the first quartile of the industry cost curve. Though Great Bear's production is likely to be replacement ounces for falling volumes at other mines.
📊
266
Total Alerts
🎯
47.2%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.07%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.94%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.6%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.69%
Avg Loser: -0.75%
Best: +4.26%
Worst: -3.46%
Trades: 100/138

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -1.25%
Best: +5.18%
Worst: -7.02%
Trades: 114/137

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.44%
Best: +5.93%
Worst: -6.97%
Trades: 123/140

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.7%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -1.64%
Best: +7.53%
Worst: -7.61%
Trades: 119/138

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.2%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.11%
Avg Loser: -2.21%
Best: +10.64%
Worst: -8.97%
Trades: 125/128

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.94%
Best MFE: +11.25%
Avg Time to MFE: 116 min

On average, KGC alerts reach +1.94% profit potential within 116 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.90%
Worst MAE: -6.46%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.90%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.14:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.14x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 266 alerts, KGC typically reaches +1.94% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 266
Gap Up % 26.7%
Avg Gap -0.17%
Best Gap +1.69%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KGC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:03 $11.5 -1.91% -1.83% -1.91% -1.78% -2.00% -0.43% -0.43% -0.78% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:26:45 $11.99 -1.58% -3.42% -3.92% -4.59% -4.84% +0.46% -0.08% -0.67% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:26:08 $11.97 +0.17% - -0.46% -0.17% +1.50% +2.51% -1.09% -1.00% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:34 $11.4 +0.70% +1.40% +1.89% +1.05% +0.44% +2.46% -1.14% -0.53% WIN
2025-01-30 09:26:14 $11.38 +0.18% +0.75% +0.66% +1.36% +0.97% +2.55% -0.35% +0.18% WIN
2025-01-27 09:29:04 $10.5 -0.48% +0.95% +1.38% +0.62% +1.14% +2.05% -1.71% +0.57% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:25:02 $10.08 +0.20% -0.74% -0.35% +0.10% -1.59% +0.69% -0.50% -0.40% WIN
2024-11-25 09:26:00 $9.81 +0.82% +0.56% +0.56% +0.15% - +1.33% -0.61% -0.10% WIN
2024-11-18 09:25:00 $9.59 -0.10% +0.21% +0.99% +1.09% +1.67% +2.09% -0.52% +0.10% LOSS
2024-11-12 09:27:28 $9.44 -0.79% -0.64% -0.58% -0.42% +0.64% +0.79% -1.91% -0.95% LOSS
2024-11-11 09:28:00 $9.98 +0.85% -0.70% -1.50% -2.15% -5.31% +2.20% -0.74% -0.10% WIN
2024-11-06 09:29:50 $9.36 +0.64% +5.18% +4.81% +5.29% +5.24% +7.05% -1.82% -0.21% WIN
2024-11-01 09:25:51 $10.17 +0.20% +0.05% -0.49% -0.05% -1.87% +0.59% -0.39% - WIN
2024-08-15 09:26:53 $9.05 -1.05% -1.38% -3.04% -2.38% -1.55% -0.06% -0.72% -0.22% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:26:26 $8.05 -2.36% -0.87% +0.06% +1.68% +4.35% +5.22% -2.61% - LOSS
2024-08-02 09:28:47 $9.27 +1.46% +0.76% +0.81% -0.97% -5.61% +1.89% -0.11% +0.22% WIN
2024-07-05 09:28:03 $8.41 +1.07% +1.49% +0.83% +0.30% +0.71% +1.66% -0.36% -0.24% WIN
2024-05-15 09:27:36 $7.84 +0.64% -0.38% -1.08% -0.96% +0.13% +1.02% -1.64% +0.38% WIN
2024-04-25 09:29:04 $6.59 -0.38% -0.68% -1.29% -1.44% +2.12% +3.03% -2.28% -0.15% LOSS
2024-04-23 09:28:47 $6.36 +0.47% +1.73% +2.36% +2.75% +3.14% +3.62% -0.31% +0.31% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KGC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.2% win rate and -0.07% average gain, KGC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider KGC for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze KGC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KGC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KGC historically offers an average upside of +1.94% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KGC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.2%, KGC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests KGC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KGC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.07%). This suggests KGC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.