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KGS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 11 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-07-03 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (11 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION (SIC 4922)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 29, 2023 🔗 www.kodiakgas.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.43B 👥 Employees: 1,300
Kodiak Gas Services Inc is an operator of contract compression infrastructure in the United States. It manages business through two operating segments namely Contract Services and Other Services. Contract Services consists of operating Company-owned and customer-owned compression, and gas treating and cooling infrastructure, pursuant to fixed-revenue contracts to enable the production and gathering of natural gas and oil. Other Services consist of a full range of contract services to support the ancillary needs of customers, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, freight and crane charges, and other time and material-based offerings.
📊
11
Total Alerts
🎯
45.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.18%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.31%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +1.24%
Avg Loser: -0.80%
Best: +2.19%
Worst: -2.30%
Trades: 3/7

15MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -0.45%
Avg Winner: +1.25%
Avg Loser: -1.17%
Best: +2.80%
Worst: -4.19%
Trades: 3/7

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -1.09%
Best: +0.92%
Worst: -3.06%
Trades: 4/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 27.3%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +1.93%
Avg Loser: -1.11%
Best: +2.91%
Worst: -3.15%
Trades: 3/8

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +2.26%
Avg Loser: -2.21%
Best: +6.35%
Worst: -3.70%
Trades: 5/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.31%
Best MFE: +6.68%
Avg Time to MFE: 87 min

On average, KGS alerts reach +1.31% profit potential within 87 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.57%
Worst MAE: -2.23%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.57%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 11 alerts, KGS typically reaches +1.31% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 11
Gap Up % 54.5%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +1.60%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION

How KGS compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
KGS: -0.62% Sector: -0.07% -0.55%
EOD Gain
KGS: -0.51% Sector: -0.01% -0.50%
Avg MFE
KGS: +0.92% Sector: +1.22% -0.30%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical KGS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:27:36 $47.04 -2.30% -4.19% -3.06% -3.15% -3.70% -1.74% -1.93% -1.74% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:25:27 $47.7 +0.92% - +0.17% -0.61% -2.77% +0.92% +0.92% +0.92% WIN
2025-02-05 09:27:26 $46.95 +0.62% +0.64% +0.92% +1.79% +1.60% +3.23% +0.38% +0.40% WIN
2025-01-31 09:28:19 $47.61 -0.76% -0.16% -0.16% -0.01% -1.74% +0.42% -2.23% +0.29% LOSS
2025-01-02 09:28:58 $40.96 -0.05% -0.62% +0.75% +1.07% +1.98% +2.22% -0.78% +0.10% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:27:10 $40.26 -0.27% +0.30% -0.58% -0.45% +0.57% +0.97% -0.35% +0.07% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:29:04 $30.56 +2.19% +2.80% - +2.91% +6.35% +6.68% +1.60% +1.60% WIN
2024-10-01 09:29:26 $28.97 -0.64% -0.16% +0.83% -0.09% +0.83% +1.28% -0.86% -0.24% LOSS
2024-09-10 09:29:05 $26.71 -0.64% -1.25% -1.40% -2.58% -1.50% +1.09% -0.71% - LOSS
2023-07-07 09:25:00 $16.24 - -1.05% -0.74% -1.60% -1.48% -0.62% -0.86% -0.86% -
2023-07-03 09:26:00 $16.24 -0.92% -0.80% -0.62% -0.37% -2.09% -0.06% -1.42% -0.62% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ KGS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 45.5% win rate and -0.18% average gain, KGS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider KGS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze KGS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for KGS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, KGS historically offers an average upside of +1.31% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 KGS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 45.5%, KGS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests KGS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: KGS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.18%). This suggests KGS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.