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LI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 658 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 30, 2020 🔗 www.lixiang.com
💰 Market Cap: $17.17B 👥 Employees: 32,248
Li Auto is a leading Chinese NEV manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart NEVs. The company started volume production of its first model Li One in November 2019. The model is a six-seater, large, premium plug-in electric SUV equipped with a range extension system and advanced smart vehicle solutions. It sold over 500,000 NEVs in 2024, accounting for about 4% of China's passenger new energy vehicle market. Beyond Li One, the company expands its product line, including both BEVs and PHEVs, to target a broader consumer base.
📊
658
Total Alerts
🎯
49.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.00%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.25%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.8%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.84%
Best: +5.19%
Worst: -5.83%
Trades: 327/320

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.3%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.30%
Avg Loser: -1.42%
Best: +8.77%
Worst: -10.42%
Trades: 317/335

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +1.56%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +9.73%
Worst: -13.48%
Trades: 301/350

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.6%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.69%
Avg Loser: -1.86%
Best: +10.45%
Worst: -21.26%
Trades: 312/339

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +2.09%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +10.83%
Worst: -17.49%
Trades: 316/339

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.25%
Best MFE: +15.49%
Avg Time to MFE: 93 min

On average, LI alerts reach +2.25% profit potential within 93 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.86%
Worst MAE: -7.54%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.86%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 658 alerts, LI typically reaches +2.25% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 658
Gap Up % 46.7%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +1.34%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:29 $26.12 -0.52% -1.34% -0.90% -1.49% -1.07% +0.11% -0.27% +0.11% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:24 $25.09 +0.08% -0.60% -0.32% -0.32% +0.44% +1.08% -0.88% +0.04% WIN
2025-02-12 09:25:08 $25.74 +0.70% +0.62% +0.45% +1.17% +2.18% +3.11% - +0.70% WIN
2025-02-11 09:27:05 $25.18 -0.44% +0.04% -0.16% -0.16% -0.44% +1.19% -0.75% +0.32% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:28:10 $26.99 -0.31% -0.89% -1.17% -1.19% -2.30% +0.22% -0.15% +0.04% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:04 $26.43 -0.09% -0.34% +0.17% -0.38% -1.55% +0.83% -1.02% - LOSS
2025-02-06 09:25:23 $24.64 -1.12% -0.41% -0.47% +0.22% +0.71% +1.66% -1.64% -0.28% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:26:52 $23.4 -1.05% -0.13% -0.30% +0.06% -0.13% +0.51% -1.15% -0.34% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:46 $24.07 +0.54% +0.58% +1.91% +2.22% +0.75% +2.82% -0.58% +0.12% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:49 $22.15 +0.88% +2.44% +2.48% +3.52% +3.30% +5.06% -0.41% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:47 $23.88 -0.88% -0.50% -0.69% -0.26% -1.13% +0.21% -1.00% - LOSS
2025-01-22 09:29:41 $23.14 -0.74% -0.84% -0.99% -1.40% -2.25% +0.37% -0.67% +0.17% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:29 $23.84 -1.85% -2.94% -2.18% -1.38% -0.21% +0.65% -3.82% -0.92% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:54 $22.71 +0.44% +0.31% -0.33% -1.08% -1.67% +1.01% -0.26% -0.04% WIN
2025-01-06 09:29:51 $24.48 -0.45% -0.29% -0.12% -0.61% -2.37% +1.23% +0.08% +0.08% LOSS
2025-01-03 09:29:25 $24.98 -1.92% -1.84% -2.02% -2.24% -0.92% -0.64% -2.20% -0.64% LOSS
2024-12-31 09:29:08 $24.19 +0.25% +0.29% +0.82% +1.45% -0.83% +1.74% -1.41% +0.04% WIN
2024-12-30 09:27:49 $24.94 -1.32% -1.28% -1.68% -2.53% -2.69% +0.56% -0.48% +0.04% LOSS
2024-12-27 09:28:15 $25.9 -1.04% -0.73% -0.46% -1.93% -1.58% -0.15% -0.15% -0.17% LOSS
2024-12-26 09:28:43 $25.53 +2.55% +2.04% +1.18% +0.16% -0.82% +4.58% -0.27% -0.08% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LI Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.8% win rate and -0.00% average gain, LI alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider LI for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze LI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LI historically offers an average upside of +2.25% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.8%, LI shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LI shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.00%). This suggests LI is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.