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LNC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 23 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2023-11-02

⚠️ Small sample size (23 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Lincoln National Corp. LIFE INSURANCE (SIC 6311)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 20, 1969 🔗 www.lincolnfinancial.com
💰 Market Cap: $7.66B 👥 Employees: 9,783
Lincoln National Corp operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses. The company's operating segment includes Annuities; Retirement Plan Services; Life Insurance and Group Protection. Its products include fixed and indexed annuities, variable annuities, universal life insurance (UL), variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL, indexed universal life insurance (IUL), term life insurance, employer-sponsored retirement plans and services, and group life, disability and dental.
📊
23
Total Alerts
🎯
47.8%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.49%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+1.46%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.1%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +2.10%
Worst: -3.19%
Trades: 9/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.49%
Avg Winner: +0.90%
Avg Loser: -1.76%
Best: +1.77%
Worst: -4.65%
Trades: 11/12

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.5%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +1.40%
Avg Loser: -2.35%
Best: +2.78%
Worst: -6.62%
Trades: 10/13

60MIN

Win Rate: 39.1%
Avg Gain: -0.93%
Avg Winner: +1.41%
Avg Loser: -2.43%
Best: +2.67%
Worst: -8.55%
Trades: 9/14

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 39.1%
Avg Gain: -0.80%
Avg Winner: +2.36%
Avg Loser: -2.84%
Best: +5.05%
Worst: -11.89%
Trades: 9/14

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.46%
Best MFE: +5.14%
Avg Time to MFE: 154 min

On average, LNC alerts reach +1.46% profit potential within 154 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.49%
Worst MAE: -7.33%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.49%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.98:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 23 alerts, LNC typically reaches +1.46% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 23
Gap Up % 26.1%
Avg Gap -0.45%
Best Gap +1.20%

🏭 Sector Comparison: LIFE INSURANCE

How LNC compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LNC: -0.46% Sector: +0.02% -0.49%
EOD Gain
LNC: -0.80% Sector: -0.65% -0.15%
Avg MFE
LNC: +1.46% Sector: +1.69% -0.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LNC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-11-02 09:25:00 $22.5 +0.52% -1.40% -5.24% -2.98% +2.76% +2.98% -7.33% -0.93% WIN
2023-10-02 09:25:00 $24.6 -1.30% -1.38% -2.03% -1.32% -1.59% -0.41% -0.41% -1.18% LOSS
2023-08-30 09:27:00 $26.16 -0.46% -0.46% +0.13% -1.32% -1.83% +0.34% -0.65% -0.34% LOSS
2023-08-04 09:25:00 $28.17 -0.73% -1.31% -0.50% -1.10% -4.44% +0.11% -1.67% -0.60% LOSS
2023-06-27 09:25:00 $24.58 -0.75% -1.51% -2.24% +1.20% +0.85% +1.87% -2.64% -0.81% LOSS
2023-05-12 09:27:00 $20.22 -1.38% -2.03% -2.67% -3.34% -5.49% -0.06% -1.24% -0.30% LOSS
2023-05-11 09:27:00 $20.09 -1.36% +0.40% -0.37% -1.94% -0.75% +0.75% -1.89% -1.29% LOSS
2023-04-27 09:27:00 $20.49 +2.10% +1.07% +2.78% +1.39% +2.34% +3.03% +0.88% +0.88% WIN
2023-04-26 09:25:00 $20.61 -0.97% +0.97% +0.53% -0.39% -0.68% +2.38% -1.02% -1.02% LOSS
2023-04-25 09:26:00 $20.97 -1.14% -1.48% -1.53% -2.00% -2.48% -0.67% -1.05% -1.05% LOSS
2023-04-17 09:29:00 $21.2 -2.45% -1.46% +0.61% +0.09% +3.44% +3.54% -2.73% -0.52% LOSS
2023-01-30 09:29:00 $33.8 +0.38% +0.47% +0.86% +0.98% -1.01% +1.78% -1.01% -0.30% WIN
2023-01-19 09:27:00 $31.0 -3.19% -3.22% -3.97% -4.13% -3.45% -2.32% -4.81% -3.77% LOSS
2023-01-06 09:28:00 $31.16 +0.52% -0.35% -1.24% -1.44% +2.41% +2.82% -1.99% +0.35% WIN
2022-11-21 09:25:00 $37.42 +0.36% +1.34% +1.28% +0.78% +1.98% +2.27% -0.80% +0.64% WIN
2022-11-03 09:25:00 $39.53 -0.68% -4.65% -6.62% -8.55% -11.89% +0.86% -0.83% -0.13% LOSS
2022-10-04 09:25:00 $46.9 +0.62% +1.71% +2.44% +2.67% +5.05% +5.14% -0.02% +0.11% WIN
2022-08-30 09:25:00 $47.21 +0.91% +0.40% -0.49% -0.85% -0.91% +0.91% +0.64% +0.64% WIN
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $64.71 -1.67% -1.90% -3.04% -2.86% -0.62% -0.39% -4.42% -1.10% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $73.02 +0.18% +0.11% -0.64% -1.74% -2.85% +0.40% -0.41% -0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LNC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.8% win rate and -0.49% average gain, LNC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider LNC for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze LNC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LNC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LNC historically offers an average upside of +1.46% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LNC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.8%, LNC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests LNC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LNC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.49%). This suggests LNC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.