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LW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 34 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-17 → 2024-12-19

⚠️ Small sample size (34 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 01, 2016 🔗 www.lambweston.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.07B 👥 Employees: 10,100
Lamb Weston is North America's largest and the world's second-largest producer of branded and private-label frozen potato products, both by volume and value. The company's portfolio is anchored by french fries, but it also sells sweet potato fries, tater tots, diced potatoes, mashed potatoes, hash browns, and chips. Roughly two thirds of revenue comes from its home market of North America, with none of the other 100 countries the company sells into representing a significant share. McDonald's is Lamb Weston's single-largest customer at 15% of fiscal 2025 sales, with no other company representing more than 10%. Lamb Weston became an independent company in 2016 when it was spun off from Conagra.
📊
34
Total Alerts
🎯
58.8%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.09%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 58.8%
Avg Gain: +0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.70%
Avg Loser: -0.78%
Best: +2.09%
Worst: -3.27%
Trades: 20/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.77%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +1.89%
Worst: -4.10%
Trades: 17/17

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.1%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.80%
Best: +1.97%
Worst: -4.31%
Trades: 16/18

60MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +0.78%
Avg Loser: -1.80%
Best: +2.10%
Worst: -5.89%
Trades: 18/16

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 58.8%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +1.09%
Avg Loser: -2.50%
Best: +3.22%
Worst: -9.16%
Trades: 20/14

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.47%
Best MFE: +5.41%
Avg Time to MFE: 112 min

On average, LW alerts reach +1.47% profit potential within 112 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.61%
Worst MAE: -5.22%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.61%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 34 alerts, LW typically reaches +1.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 34
Gap Up % 64.7%
Avg Gap +0.07%
Best Gap +1.68%

🏭 Sector Comparison: CANNED, FROZEN & PRESERVD FRUIT, VEG & FOOD SPECIALTIES

How LW compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LW: +0.09% Sector: -0.06% +0.15%
EOD Gain
LW: -0.39% Sector: +23.49% -23.88%
Avg MFE
LW: +1.47% Sector: +1.66% -0.20%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-19 09:25:55 $65.26 +1.91% -0.00% -0.20% -4.29% -4.23% +5.41% -1.21% +1.07% WIN
2024-10-18 09:29:42 $79.3 -3.27% -4.10% -4.31% -3.56% -1.36% -0.01% -5.22% -0.18% LOSS
2024-07-24 09:25:33 $62.11 +0.95% +0.28% -0.21% -5.89% -9.16% +3.30% -4.82% -4.82% WIN
2024-04-04 09:28:45 $87.5 +1.19% -1.13% -1.30% -4.57% -6.82% +2.26% -0.33% +1.18% WIN
2023-11-30 09:29:00 $98.16 -0.93% -0.66% -0.61% -0.28% +1.91% +2.00% -1.04% -0.79% LOSS
2023-10-26 09:29:00 $88.56 -0.24% +0.41% +0.93% +0.88% +0.25% +1.58% -0.55% +0.51% LOSS
2023-10-05 09:29:00 $102.0 -1.87% -1.22% -0.45% -2.72% -4.17% - -0.49% -0.41% LOSS
2023-09-01 09:29:00 $97.41 +0.35% +0.23% -0.11% -0.16% -0.13% +0.52% -0.05% +0.09% WIN
2023-04-26 09:28:00 $109.51 +0.92% +0.95% +1.31% +0.98% +0.68% +1.44% -0.06% +0.08% WIN
2023-03-22 09:27:00 $99.66 -0.31% -0.50% -0.29% -0.31% +0.05% +0.95% -0.52% +0.33% LOSS
2023-03-15 09:29:00 $95.96 +2.09% +1.84% +1.11% +1.69% +2.12% +2.14% +0.51% +1.68% WIN
2023-02-14 09:27:00 $99.59 -0.04% +0.07% +0.02% +0.03% -0.32% +0.34% -0.26% +0.06% LOSS
2023-02-09 09:26:00 $98.99 +0.94% +0.80% +0.31% -0.04% -0.88% +1.12% +0.26% +0.26% WIN
2023-01-23 09:27:00 $96.76 +0.28% +0.18% -0.32% +0.19% -0.65% +1.05% +1.05% +0.42% WIN
2023-01-20 09:29:00 $95.64 -0.12% -0.18% -0.37% +0.15% +0.96% +1.16% -0.49% +0.68% LOSS
2023-01-06 09:25:00 $96.5 +0.93% +1.24% +1.97% +2.10% +3.22% +3.85% +0.23% +1.39% WIN
2023-01-05 09:25:00 $94.74 +0.39% -0.02% +1.31% +1.04% +1.36% +2.25% -1.29% +0.14% WIN
2022-12-13 09:25:00 $87.46 -1.09% -1.77% -1.44% -1.84% -1.51% -0.58% -1.99% -1.11% LOSS
2022-12-09 09:25:00 $86.5 +0.31% +0.40% +0.40% +0.05% -1.06% +0.58% -0.03% - WIN
2022-12-05 09:25:00 $87.63 -0.84% -1.02% -1.53% -1.16% +0.06% +0.25% -0.31% -0.56% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.8% Baseline on LW

The 58.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push LW's performance to 75%+.

Optimize LW Strategy →

Why Analyze LW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LW historically offers an average upside of +1.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.8%, LW shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show LW performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.09%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.