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LYV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 30 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-24 → 2024-12-04

⚠️ Small sample size (30 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 14, 2005 🔗 www.livenationentertainment.com
💰 Market Cap: $34.13B 👥 Employees: 16,200
Live Nation is the largest live entertainment company in the world, serving as a concert promoter, venue operator, and ticketing platform. In addition, the firm generates revenue from sponsorships and advertising. With offices in 45 countries, Live Nation promotes concerts globally and it owned, operated, or had exclusive booking rights to nearly 400 venues worldwide at the end of 2024, which the firm says makes it the second-largest operator of music venues globally. In 2024, Live Nation promoted nearly 55,000 events, drawing more than 150 million fans. Ticketmaster is a dominant global ticketing service, selling almost 640 million tickets in 2024.
📊
30
Total Alerts
🎯
56.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.12%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 53.3%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.68%
Avg Loser: -1.10%
Best: +4.12%
Worst: -4.46%
Trades: 16/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.75%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +5.57%
Worst: -5.56%
Trades: 12/18

30MIN

Win Rate: 36.7%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.85%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +8.11%
Worst: -5.41%
Trades: 11/19

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +2.02%
Avg Loser: -1.66%
Best: +11.22%
Worst: -6.07%
Trades: 14/16

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 56.7%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.93%
Avg Loser: -2.80%
Best: +11.16%
Worst: -12.96%
Trades: 17/13

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.84%
Best MFE: +12.81%
Avg Time to MFE: 161 min

On average, LYV alerts reach +1.84% profit potential within 161 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.53%
Worst MAE: -2.95%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.53%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.48:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.48x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 30 alerts, LYV typically reaches +1.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 30
Gap Up % 46.7%
Avg Gap +0.06%
Best Gap +4.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-AMUSEMENT & RECREATION SERVICES

How LYV compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
LYV: -0.15% Sector: +0.07% -0.22%
EOD Gain
LYV: -0.12% Sector: +6.52% -6.64%
Avg MFE
LYV: +1.84% Sector: +3.06% -1.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical LYV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-04 09:28:09 $138.8 -0.84% -1.06% -1.30% -1.21% -1.49% +0.50% +0.04% +0.28% LOSS
2024-04-16 09:26:48 $91.01 +0.45% +1.83% +2.53% +3.55% +1.32% +3.59% -1.00% -0.02% WIN
2024-02-23 09:25:26 $100.75 -2.51% -1.74% -1.23% -3.99% -5.39% +0.74% -2.95% -2.26% LOSS
2023-12-15 09:27:00 $92.95 +0.45% +0.12% -0.02% +0.58% +0.05% +0.76% -1.17% -0.11% WIN
2023-11-16 09:29:00 $89.18 -0.49% -0.50% -0.31% -0.28% -0.09% +0.38% -0.73% -0.58% LOSS
2023-11-10 09:27:00 $86.14 -0.28% -1.02% -0.94% -0.67% +1.60% +1.73% -1.33% -0.06% LOSS
2023-11-09 09:29:00 $87.8 -0.70% -0.91% -0.74% -0.35% -1.89% +0.25% -1.20% +0.08% LOSS
2023-11-03 09:27:00 $87.8 -4.46% -5.56% -5.41% -6.06% -2.78% - - -1.14% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:26:00 $80.0 +0.01% -0.44% +0.25% +0.97% +0.51% +1.14% -0.59% +0.35% WIN
2023-10-30 09:28:00 $77.7 -0.46% +0.05% -0.26% -0.21% +1.16% +1.62% -0.60% -0.21% LOSS
2023-10-19 09:29:00 $82.54 +0.08% +0.13% +0.28% -0.51% -2.47% +0.40% +0.15% +0.40% WIN
2023-10-11 09:29:00 $87.0 +0.05% +0.22% +0.51% +0.02% +0.70% +1.10% -0.39% -0.17% WIN
2023-10-10 09:28:00 $87.15 +0.01% -0.12% -0.07% +0.40% -0.69% +0.53% -0.31% -0.16% WIN
2023-10-02 09:25:00 $82.7 +0.22% +0.98% +1.21% +1.28% +2.07% +3.33% - +0.31% WIN
2023-09-07 09:29:00 $80.7 -0.99% -1.29% -1.52% -0.88% +0.25% +0.53% -1.57% -0.62% LOSS
2023-08-11 09:25:00 $86.99 -1.20% -1.90% -1.71% -1.52% -0.44% +0.10% -2.28% -1.20% LOSS
2023-08-09 09:29:00 $87.68 +0.24% -0.25% -0.53% -0.65% -1.57% +0.44% +0.44% +0.44% WIN
2023-07-31 09:29:00 $90.75 -1.29% -1.67% -1.02% -1.95% -3.31% +2.27% -0.28% +0.71% LOSS
2023-06-12 09:29:00 $84.15 +0.15% +0.61% +0.86% +1.20% +1.81% +2.51% -0.17% +0.67% WIN
2023-06-08 09:25:00 $82.81 -0.06% -0.78% -1.33% -0.74% +0.50% +0.68% -1.47% -0.23% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ LYV Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 56.7% win rate, LYV has -0.12% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making LYV profitable.

🔧 Fix LYV Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze LYV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for LYV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, LYV historically offers an average upside of +1.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 LYV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.7%, LYV shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-2.80%) outweigh average wins (+1.93%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: LYV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.12%). This suggests LYV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.