FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

MBI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-29 → 2023-12-26

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 01, 1987 🔗 www.mbia.com
💰 Market Cap: $328.7M 👥 Employees: 57
MBIA Inc provides financial guaranty insurance for municipal bonds and asset-backed securities in the United States and internationally. It offers an unconditional guarantee to repay the principal and interest on these securities if the issuer defaults. MBIA insures bonds sold in the primary and secondary markets, as well as those held in unit investment trusts and mutual funds. It operates in three segments: the United States Public Finance Insurance, which derives maximum revenue, Corporate, and International & Structured Finance Insurance. U.S. public finance insurance portfolio is managed through the National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. International & structured finance insurance business is managed through MBIA Insurance Corporation and its subsidiary.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
85.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+3.43%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+6.37%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: -0.59%
Avg Winner: +0.31%
Avg Loser: -0.95%
Best: +0.37%
Worst: -2.55%
Trades: 2/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +0.62%
Avg Winner: +2.96%
Avg Loser: -1.52%
Best: +5.06%
Worst: -2.24%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.58%
Avg Winner: +2.06%
Avg Loser: -1.38%
Best: +3.94%
Worst: -3.04%
Trades: 4/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +0.25%
Avg Winner: +2.88%
Avg Loser: -1.73%
Best: +3.52%
Worst: -4.36%
Trades: 3/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 85.7%
Avg Gain: +3.43%
Avg Winner: +4.20%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +7.27%
Worst: -1.16%
Trades: 6/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.37%
Best MFE: +17.28%
Avg Time to MFE: 174 min

On average, MBI alerts reach +6.37% profit potential within 174 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.68%
Worst MAE: -5.92%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.68%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.8:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.8x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, MBI typically reaches +6.37% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +0.37%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURETY INSURANCE

How MBI compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MBI: -0.59% Sector: -0.19% -0.40%
EOD Gain
MBI: +3.43% Sector: +2.47% +0.96%
Avg MFE
MBI: +6.37% Sector: +4.23% +2.14%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MBI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-26 09:26:00 $6.25 -0.16% +3.32% +2.72% +3.52% +6.72% +17.28% -1.76% -0.64% LOSS
2023-12-19 09:25:00 $12.98 -0.79% - +0.08% +2.16% +3.54% +4.16% -2.31% -0.23% LOSS
2023-12-15 09:28:00 $13.75 -0.15% -0.51% -0.51% -4.36% +0.22% +2.04% -1.09% +0.07% LOSS
2023-12-12 09:28:00 $13.74 -2.55% -1.82% -0.58% -0.07% -1.16% +1.31% -0.07% +0.07% LOSS
2023-12-11 09:25:00 $13.44 +0.37% +5.06% +3.94% -0.15% +2.68% +6.32% - +0.37% WIN
2023-12-08 09:28:00 $12.51 -1.12% -2.24% -3.04% -2.32% +7.27% +7.98% -5.92% - LOSS
2022-11-29 09:25:00 $11.82 +0.25% +0.51% +1.48% +2.96% +4.74% +5.50% -0.59% +0.25% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 85.7% Baseline on MBI

The 85.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MBI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MBI Strategy →

Why Analyze MBI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MBI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MBI historically offers an average upside of +6.37% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MBI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 85.7%, MBI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MBI performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +3.43%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.