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MCD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 101 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-10 → 2025-02-10

🏢 Company Profile

McDonald's Corporation RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jul 05, 1966 🔗 www.mcdonalds.com
💰 Market Cap: $220.23B 👥 Employees: 150,000
McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant brand, with nearly $131 billion in systemwide sales across more than 44,000 restaurants and over 100 markets. The quick-service chain built its early reputation on speed, consistency, and affordable hamburgers, and today its global menu spans burgers, chicken, breakfast, and beverages that have helped popularize American fast-food cuisine worldwide. The firm derives the bulk of its revenue from franchise royalties and rent (about 61%), with the remainder stemming from company-operated restaurants across three segments: the United States (41% of systemwide sales), international operated markets (34%), and international developmental/licensed markets (25%).
📊
101
Total Alerts
🎯
58.4%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.20%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.93%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 56.4%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.39%
Avg Loser: -0.35%
Best: +1.86%
Worst: -1.50%
Trades: 57/44

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.5%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +2.30%
Worst: -2.07%
Trades: 53/48

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.4%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.69%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: +2.87%
Worst: -2.15%
Trades: 58/43

60MIN

Win Rate: 58.4%
Avg Gain: +0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.78%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +3.81%
Worst: -2.48%
Trades: 59/42

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.5%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -0.83%
Best: +3.97%
Worst: -4.54%
Trades: 54/47

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.93%
Best MFE: +4.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 135 min

On average, MCD alerts reach +0.93% profit potential within 135 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.34%
Worst MAE: -2.39%
Avg Time to MAE: 16 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.34%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.73:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.73x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 101 alerts, MCD typically reaches +0.93% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 101
Gap Up % 47.5%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +1.39%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How MCD compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MCD: +0.06% Sector: -0.12% +0.19%
EOD Gain
MCD: +0.13% Sector: +6.34% -6.21%
Avg MFE
MCD: +0.93% Sector: +2.99% -2.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MCD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:28:55 $301.64 +1.80% +2.28% +2.40% +2.08% +2.25% +2.86% -0.04% +0.21% WIN
2025-01-07 09:26:46 $293.3 +0.01% +0.31% +0.17% +0.04% -1.35% +0.56% -0.03% +0.16% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:34 $294.08 -0.21% -0.16% +0.03% -0.20% -0.65% +0.52% -0.67% -0.27% LOSS
2024-12-23 09:29:08 $291.92 +0.10% +0.22% -0.12% -0.23% -0.22% +0.40% -0.20% +0.11% WIN
2024-12-18 09:26:11 $296.8 -0.29% -0.29% -0.14% +0.07% -1.99% +0.73% -0.79% -0.60% LOSS
2024-12-11 09:29:08 $301.97 -0.26% -0.24% -0.85% -0.91% -1.94% -0.02% -0.25% -0.21% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:25:04 $299.7 +0.41% +0.43% +0.99% +1.10% -0.24% +1.37% -0.04% +0.29% WIN
2024-12-04 09:25:17 $293.02 -0.03% +0.30% +0.11% -0.11% +0.71% +1.03% -0.41% -0.25% LOSS
2024-11-29 09:26:27 $295.05 -0.19% +0.03% -0.13% +0.20% +0.33% +0.68% -0.69% -0.30% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:26:54 $292.05 +0.20% +0.53% +1.08% +1.36% +1.42% +1.56% -0.23% -0.10% WIN
2024-11-11 09:28:49 $299.71 +0.15% +1.04% +1.20% +0.72% +0.61% +1.37% +0.10% +0.26% WIN
2024-11-01 09:25:13 $292.91 +0.40% +0.71% +0.76% +1.29% +0.79% +1.36% +0.13% +0.55% WIN
2024-10-29 09:29:44 $296.76 +1.83% +0.27% +0.65% +0.99% -0.59% +2.00% +0.05% +0.28% WIN
2024-10-28 09:25:47 $298.84 -0.28% +0.16% +0.02% -0.22% -0.69% +0.36% -0.43% +0.12% LOSS
2024-10-23 09:29:21 $293.0 +0.75% +0.38% +1.62% +2.02% +1.90% +2.94% -0.74% -0.08% WIN
2024-10-18 09:26:47 $314.38 +0.10% +0.15% +0.22% +0.34% +0.69% +0.89% -0.05% +0.38% WIN
2024-08-27 09:29:58 $288.86 -0.26% +0.19% -0.15% -0.08% +0.27% +0.50% -0.28% +0.08% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:27:33 $273.63 +0.76% -0.12% +0.07% -0.24% -1.89% +1.55% +0.15% +0.15% WIN
2024-08-02 09:25:42 $270.0 +0.85% +0.85% +1.77% +1.42% +2.48% +2.52% -0.44% -0.22% WIN
2024-07-29 09:26:39 $251.43 +0.82% +1.82% +2.87% +3.81% +3.97% +4.97% -0.48% +0.84% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.4% Baseline on MCD

The 58.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MCD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MCD Strategy →

Why Analyze MCD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MCD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MCD historically offers an average upside of +0.93% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MCD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.4%, MCD shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MCD performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.20%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.