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YUMC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 66 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-07 β†’ 2024-11-12

⚠️ Small sample size (66 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏒 Company Profile

Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-EATING PLACES (SIC 5812)
πŸ“ NYSE πŸ“… IPO: Oct 17, 2016 πŸ”— www.yumchina.com
πŸ’° Market Cap: $17.38B πŸ‘₯ Employees: 351,000
Yum China is the largest restaurant operator in China, with over 18,000 locations and USD 12 billion in systemwide sales as of 2025. It generates revenue primarily from its own restaurants and franchise fees. While KFC and Pizza Hut are its flagship brands, Yum China's portfolio also includes Little Sheep, Taco Bell, Huang Ji Huang, and Lavazza. As a trademark licensee of Yum Brands, Yum China pays 3% of KFC and Pizza Hut's systemwide sales to its former parent, from which it spun off in 2016. However, even before the separation, Yum China was granted substantial autonomy, giving its Chinese leadership decision-making authority over menu, supply chain, and marketingβ€”an unusual practice for Western chains at the time.
πŸ“Š
66
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
πŸ’°
-0.17%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
πŸš€
+1.63%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

πŸ“ˆ Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.88%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +6.53%
Worst: -3.35%
Trades: 32/34

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +1.21%
Avg Loser: -1.54%
Best: +5.40%
Worst: -4.95%
Trades: 33/33

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.24%
Avg Loser: -1.45%
Best: +4.48%
Worst: -4.52%
Trades: 30/36

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.9%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.46%
Avg Loser: -1.61%
Best: +7.25%
Worst: -5.45%
Trades: 27/39

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.4%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +1.63%
Avg Loser: -1.74%
Best: +7.21%
Worst: -5.81%
Trades: 28/38

πŸš€ Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

πŸ“ˆ MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.63%
Best MFE: +9.92%
Avg Time to MFE: 83 min

On average, YUMC alerts reach +1.63% profit potential within 83 minutes.

πŸ“‰ MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.69%
Worst MAE: -5.20%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.69%.

βš–οΈ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.36:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.36x the typical drawdown.

πŸ’‘ Trading Insight: Based on 66 alerts, YUMC typically reaches +1.63% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

πŸŒ… Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 β†’ 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 66
Gap Up % 39.4%
Avg Gap -0.24%
Best Gap +2.22%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-EATING PLACES

How YUMC compares to 27 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
YUMC: -0.05% Sector: -0.12% +0.07%
EOD Gain
YUMC: -0.31% Sector: +6.34% -6.65%
Avg MFE
YUMC: +1.63% Sector: +2.99% -1.36%

πŸ“‹ Last 20 Alerts

Historical YUMC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-12 09:28:22 $49.23 -2.68% -2.23% -2.61% -2.84% -2.72% -1.32% -1.32% -1.99% LOSS
2024-11-04 09:27:56 $49.0 +1.84% +1.66% +0.12% -0.10% -1.43% +2.24% -0.02% +1.65% WIN
2024-10-11 09:27:49 $46.16 +1.49% +1.72% +2.08% +2.66% +2.88% +3.66% +0.43% +0.56% WIN
2024-10-08 09:28:05 $46.7 +0.96% +0.58% -0.32% +0.69% +0.84% +1.91% -0.64% +0.04% WIN
2024-09-26 09:29:32 $42.4 +6.53% +5.40% +4.48% +2.56% +3.44% +8.49% +1.42% +2.22% WIN
2024-09-24 09:25:25 $38.25 +0.93% +0.94% +1.36% +1.07% +1.88% +2.48% -0.33% +0.08% WIN
2024-09-04 09:25:44 $33.86 +0.68% +0.47% +0.10% -0.06% -0.59% +0.84% -0.21% -0.03% WIN
2024-08-26 09:28:39 $33.37 +2.16% +2.55% +1.53% +0.60% +0.60% +2.79% +0.42% +0.75% WIN
2024-06-11 09:27:10 $34.75 -1.73% -1.47% -1.70% -2.00% -1.29% -0.72% -1.15% -1.38% LOSS
2024-05-21 09:25:52 $38.82 -1.07% +0.05% +0.03% -1.03% -1.34% +0.36% -1.85% -1.75% LOSS
2024-02-15 09:26:57 $40.4 +0.57% +1.25% +1.51% +1.99% +1.11% +2.48% -0.49% -0.27% WIN
2024-02-07 09:26:49 $42.0 -1.17% -4.13% -3.60% -2.79% -3.83% +1.19% +0.74% +0.71% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:28:00 $44.84 -2.14% -4.95% -3.28% -5.45% -0.62% +1.78% -3.90% -1.87% LOSS
2023-09-27 09:25:00 $55.92 -0.17% -0.28% +0.11% -0.55% -0.20% +0.68% -0.21% -0.02% LOSS
2023-09-21 09:26:00 $55.51 +0.76% +0.59% +0.35% +0.36% -0.70% +1.12% +0.40% +0.79% WIN
2023-08-21 09:25:00 $51.8 +0.48% +1.41% +1.47% +1.24% +2.39% +2.85% -0.10% +0.44% WIN
2023-08-07 09:28:00 $56.69 +0.35% -0.37% -0.86% -0.64% -0.07% +0.46% -0.60% -0.37% WIN
2023-07-31 09:29:00 $60.98 +0.05% +1.34% +0.84% +0.43% +0.07% +1.66% -0.72% -0.43% WIN
2023-07-18 09:27:00 $60.0 +0.45% +0.37% -0.28% +0.19% -2.60% +1.12% -0.17% - WIN
2023-07-05 09:25:00 $56.96 +0.21% -0.11% -1.28% -1.55% -1.23% +0.45% -0.43% -0.11% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ YUMC Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.17% average gain, YUMC alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider YUMC for short-selling strategies.

πŸ“‰ Turn Negative Expectancy Positive β†’

Why Analyze YUMC with FILTRIX?

πŸ›‘οΈ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for YUMC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

πŸ’° Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, YUMC historically offers an average upside of +1.63% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

πŸ“Š YUMC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, YUMC shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests YUMC may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: YUMC shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.17%). This suggests YUMC is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.