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MCO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2025-02-12

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 05, 1984 🔗 www.moodys.com
💰 Market Cap: $93.49B 👥 Employees: 4,800
Moody's, along with S&P Ratings, is a leading provider of credit ratings on fixed-income securities. The ratings segment, Moody's Investors Service, includes corporates, structured finance, financial institutions, and public finance ratings. MIS represents a majority of the firm's profit and often (depending on bond issuance levels) a majority of the firm's revenue. The other segment, Moody's Analytics, consists of decision solutions, research and insights, and data and information.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.26%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.59%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +2.13%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +2.85%
Worst: -0.92%
Trades: 2/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: +0.47%
Avg Winner: +4.57%
Avg Loser: -0.90%
Best: +8.68%
Worst: -1.44%
Trades: 2/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: +0.83%
Avg Winner: +6.88%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +12.93%
Worst: -2.15%
Trades: 2/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: +0.34%
Avg Winner: +3.70%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +9.67%
Worst: -2.65%
Trades: 3/5

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +2.91%
Avg Loser: -2.40%
Best: +6.56%
Worst: -5.10%
Trades: 4/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.59%
Best MFE: +13.58%
Avg Time to MFE: 129 min

On average, MCO alerts reach +2.59% profit potential within 129 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.62%
Worst MAE: -1.85%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.62%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.15:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.15x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, MCO typically reaches +2.59% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap +0.30%
Best Gap +2.51%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-CONSUMER CREDIT REPORTING, COLLECTION AGENCIES

How MCO compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MCO: +0.06% Sector: +0.27% -0.21%
EOD Gain
MCO: +0.26% Sector: +0.27% -0.01%
Avg MFE
MCO: +2.59% Sector: +1.89% +0.69%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MCO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:28:23 $508.0 -0.92% -1.38% -1.31% -1.28% -0.50% +0.84% +0.14% +0.21% LOSS
2024-08-12 09:25:41 $467.17 -0.68% -0.91% -1.22% -1.12% -1.41% -0.46% -0.51% -0.51% LOSS
2022-06-01 09:25:00 $265.0 +2.85% +8.68% +12.93% +9.67% +6.56% +13.58% - +2.51% WIN
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $321.41 -0.85% +0.46% -0.03% +0.07% +1.28% +1.35% -1.26% -0.44% LOSS
2022-02-14 09:25:00 $332.0 -0.33% -0.31% -0.86% -1.76% -2.57% +0.06% -0.33% -0.33% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $350.14 -0.25% -0.72% -2.15% -2.65% -5.10% -0.04% -0.25% -0.17% LOSS
2022-02-10 09:25:00 $339.5 +1.42% -0.67% +0.83% +1.34% +3.13% +4.51% -0.93% +1.39% WIN
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $336.0 -0.76% -1.44% -1.59% -1.54% +0.66% +0.86% -1.85% -0.30% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on MCO

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MCO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MCO Strategy →

Why Analyze MCO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MCO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MCO historically offers an average upside of +2.59% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MCO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, MCO shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MCO performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.26%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.