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MDU Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-31 → 2025-02-11

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 20, 1948 🔗 www.mdu.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.16B 👥 Employees: 2,052
MDU Resources Group Inc operates in three business segments, which include the electric segment, which generates, transmits, and distributes electricity in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming; The natural gas distribution segment distributes natural gas in those states, as well as in Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington; The pipeline segment provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions of the United States.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
62.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.41%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.77%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.41%
Avg Winner: +1.04%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +1.81%
Worst: -1.07%
Trades: 5/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.51%
Avg Winner: +1.28%
Avg Loser: -0.78%
Best: +2.65%
Worst: -1.49%
Trades: 5/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.87%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +3.14%
Worst: -2.02%
Trades: 3/5

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -1.40%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: -3.66%
Trades: 2/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -8.16%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -17.29%
Best: +2.47%
Worst: -62.07%
Trades: 4/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.77%
Best MFE: +4.28%
Avg Time to MFE: 84 min

On average, MDU alerts reach +1.77% profit potential within 84 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.81%
Worst MAE: -2.02%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.81%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.18:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.18x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, MDU typically reaches +1.77% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap -0.24%
Best Gap +0.32%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MINING & QUARRYING OF NONMETALLIC MINERALS (NO FUELS)

How MDU compares to 10 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MDU: +0.41% Sector: -0.04% +0.45%
EOD Gain
MDU: -8.16% Sector: +18.85% -27.01%
Avg MFE
MDU: +1.77% Sector: +3.76% -2.00%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MDU alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-11 09:26:41 $16.58 +1.81% +2.65% +3.14% +1.63% +2.47% +4.28% -0.06% +0.24% WIN
2025-01-21 09:26:03 $18.6 +1.02% +0.97% +0.97% - +0.05% +1.67% +0.19% +0.32% WIN
2025-01-17 09:26:43 $18.68 +1.13% +0.70% -0.43% -1.12% -1.45% +1.18% -0.11% +0.27% WIN
2024-11-12 09:26:42 $18.19 -0.60% -0.33% -0.03% -0.41% -0.99% +0.27% -0.82% -0.49% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:27:39 $17.79 -1.07% -0.52% -0.73% - +0.79% +2.14% -1.52% -0.67% LOSS
2024-11-04 09:28:22 $15.34 +0.84% +1.83% +1.50% +0.20% +0.59% +2.27% -0.46% -0.33% WIN
2024-11-01 09:26:18 $15.84 +0.38% +0.27% -2.02% -3.66% -4.67% +2.08% -2.02% -0.76% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $27.45 -0.22% -1.49% -0.91% -0.40% -62.07% +0.26% -1.69% -0.51% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.5% Baseline on MDU

The 62.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MDU's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MDU Strategy →

Why Analyze MDU with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MDU. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MDU historically offers an average upside of +1.77% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MDU Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.5%, MDU shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MDU performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.41%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.