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MED Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-28 → 2024-04-30

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 24, 1981 🔗 www.medifastinc.com
💰 Market Cap: $132.4M 👥 Employees: 504
Medifast Inc is a old health and wellness company known for its habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solution OPTAVIA, which provides people with a simple, yet comprehensive approach to address obesity and support a healthy life. OPTAVIA provides unparalleled coaching support along with community, tailored nutrition and healthy habits, and empowers people to master their weight loss journey through each stage of life. The company has access to GLP-1 medications where clinically appropriate. Medifast remains committed to its mission of offering Lifelong Transformation, Making a Healthy Lifestyle Second Nature.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
100.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+2.51%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+6.01%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -1.82%
Best: +1.08%
Worst: -1.82%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.60%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.60%
Best: -1.60%
Worst: -1.60%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +2.51%
Avg Winner: +2.51%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +3.43%
Worst: +1.60%
Trades: 2/0

60MIN

Win Rate: 100.0%
Avg Gain: +1.42%
Avg Winner: +1.42%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: +1.21%
Trades: 2/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.87%
Avg Winner: +2.19%
Avg Loser: -0.45%
Best: +2.19%
Worst: -0.45%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.01%
Best MFE: +9.99%
Avg Time to MFE: 259 min

On average, MED alerts reach +6.01% profit potential within 259 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.76%
Worst MAE: -3.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 80 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.76%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.41:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.41x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, MED typically reaches +6.01% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.09%
Best Gap +1.08%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MISCELLANEOUS FOOD PREPARATIONS & KINDRED PRODUCTS

How MED compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MED: -1.82% Sector: +0.70% -2.52%
EOD Gain
MED: +2.19% Sector: +0.13% +2.06%
Avg MFE
MED: +9.99% Sector: +5.74% +4.25%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MED alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-04-30 09:28:35 $26.94 -1.82% -1.60% +3.43% +1.63% +2.19% +9.99% -3.42% -1.26% LOSS
2022-06-28 09:25:00 $188.0 +1.08% - +1.60% +1.21% -0.45% +2.04% -0.11% +1.08% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 100.0% Baseline on MED

The 100.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MED's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MED Strategy →

Why Analyze MED with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MED. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MED historically offers an average upside of +6.01% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MED Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 100.0%, MED shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MED performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +2.51%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.