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MPLX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 27 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-18 → 2024-08-12

⚠️ Small sample size (27 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 26, 2012 🔗 www.mplx.com
💰 Market Cap: $56.11B 👥 Employees: 5,560
MPLX is a partnership that owns pipelines and gathering and processing assets with extensive holdings in the Appalachian and Permian regions. The asset base is made up of crude oil and refined products assets dropped down from Marathon Petroleum, its sponsor, and natural gas and natural gas liquids gathering and processing assets that were purchased or built.
📊
27
Total Alerts
🎯
51.9%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.09%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+0.87%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.30%
Avg Loser: -0.34%
Best: +0.72%
Worst: -0.87%
Trades: 9/17

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.9%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.60%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +2.05%
Worst: -3.43%
Trades: 14/13

30MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -1.02%
Best: +1.32%
Worst: -3.80%
Trades: 12/15

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -0.85%
Best: +1.69%
Worst: -3.47%
Trades: 9/18

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.7%
Avg Gain: -0.29%
Avg Winner: +1.01%
Avg Loser: -1.19%
Best: +3.64%
Worst: -4.12%
Trades: 11/16

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.87%
Best MFE: +4.17%
Avg Time to MFE: 161 min

On average, MPLX alerts reach +0.87% profit potential within 161 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.62%
Worst MAE: -1.96%
Avg Time to MAE: 33 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.62%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.42:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 27 alerts, MPLX typically reaches +0.87% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 27
Gap Up % 18.5%
Avg Gap -0.19%
Best Gap +1.12%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PIPE LINES (NO NATURAL GAS)

How MPLX compares to 7 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MPLX: -0.11% Sector: -0.06% -0.06%
EOD Gain
MPLX: -0.29% Sector: +0.13% -0.42%
Avg MFE
MPLX: +0.87% Sector: +1.33% -0.46%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MPLX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-08-12 09:26:10 $41.0 -0.12% -0.20% -0.61% -0.60% -1.37% +0.07% -0.49% -0.49% LOSS
2024-06-10 09:27:12 $41.1 +0.07% -0.27% -0.26% -0.32% +0.32% +0.58% -0.39% -0.10% WIN
2024-04-26 09:26:00 $42.31 -0.87% -0.90% -1.23% -1.08% -0.85% -0.59% -1.09% -0.80% LOSS
2024-04-24 09:25:12 $41.64 -0.38% -0.60% -0.30% -0.05% +0.31% +0.55% -0.94% -0.22% LOSS
2024-04-19 09:28:09 $40.39 +0.12% +0.69% +0.92% +1.22% +0.72% +1.81% -0.11% -0.05% WIN
2024-04-17 09:27:11 $40.05 -0.35% +0.12% +0.31% -0.01% -0.15% +0.42% -0.65% -0.47% LOSS
2024-04-12 09:27:53 $41.23 -0.02% +0.63% +0.12% +0.30% -1.43% +0.64% -0.17% -0.07% LOSS
2024-04-10 09:29:21 $41.95 -0.57% -0.66% -0.85% -0.57% -1.33% -0.24% -0.45% -0.26% LOSS
2024-04-05 09:27:01 $42.45 -0.08% -0.35% -0.59% -0.74% -0.75% +0.02% -0.75% -0.26% LOSS
2024-04-03 09:26:47 $42.3 -0.56% -0.64% -0.43% -0.38% +0.09% +0.38% -0.76% -0.73% LOSS
2024-03-28 09:25:38 $41.66 -0.36% -0.56% -0.60% -0.73% -0.24% - -0.86% -0.31% LOSS
2023-11-29 09:25:00 $36.15 -0.04% -0.30% -0.30% -0.03% +0.17% +0.58% -0.47% -0.03% LOSS
2022-09-23 09:25:00 $30.59 -0.52% -3.43% -3.17% -3.47% -4.12% +0.03% -0.56% -0.26% LOSS
2022-06-28 09:25:00 $29.57 +0.54% +0.65% +1.32% +1.12% -0.44% +2.03% +0.10% +1.12% WIN
2022-05-31 09:25:00 $32.65 +0.03% +0.52% +0.44% +0.55% +0.92% +1.07% -0.70% -0.24% WIN
2022-04-26 09:25:00 $32.63 +0.43% +0.49% +0.06% -0.15% -0.46% +1.49% -0.46% +0.31% WIN
2022-04-20 09:25:00 $35.11 -0.23% -0.06% -0.44% -0.93% -0.20% +0.48% -1.14% -0.68% LOSS
2022-03-24 09:25:00 $32.97 +0.24% +0.46% +0.27% +0.18% +0.73% +0.73% -0.76% +0.09% WIN
2022-03-17 09:25:00 $32.07 -0.34% -0.36% -1.34% -0.72% -0.62% +0.16% -1.59% -0.37% LOSS
2022-03-14 09:25:00 $33.15 -0.39% -2.38% -3.80% -2.32% -3.23% -0.30% -0.63% -0.51% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MPLX Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.9% win rate, MPLX has -0.09% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making MPLX profitable.

🔧 Fix MPLX Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze MPLX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MPLX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MPLX historically offers an average upside of +0.87% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MPLX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.9%, MPLX shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.82%) outweigh average wins (+0.60%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MPLX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.09%). This suggests MPLX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.