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MS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 61 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-01-21

⚠️ Small sample size (61 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 21, 1986 🔗 www.morganstanley.com
💰 Market Cap: $283.36B 👥 Employees: 81,000
Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 82,000 employees as of year-end 2025. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $9.3 trillion in client assets at the end of its most recent fiscal year. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the global financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with more than $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and brokerage businesses.
📊
61
Total Alerts
🎯
49.2%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.09%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.43%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.7%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +0.42%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +1.17%
Worst: -2.03%
Trades: 23/38

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.0%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.82%
Avg Loser: -0.91%
Best: +1.87%
Worst: -2.57%
Trades: 25/36

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: +3.44%
Worst: -2.36%
Trades: 28/33

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.2%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +1.06%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +4.01%
Worst: -3.27%
Trades: 30/31

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.42%
Avg Loser: -1.52%
Best: +4.95%
Worst: -3.26%
Trades: 29/32

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.43%
Best MFE: +5.90%
Avg Time to MFE: 123 min

On average, MS alerts reach +1.43% profit potential within 123 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.68%
Worst MAE: -3.08%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.68%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.12:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.12x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 61 alerts, MS typically reaches +1.43% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 61
Gap Up % 45.9%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +1.07%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES

How MS compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MS: -0.16% Sector: -0.16% -0.00%
EOD Gain
MS: -0.12% Sector: +0.18% -0.30%
Avg MFE
MS: +1.43% Sector: +2.77% -1.34%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-21 09:28:53 $136.51 -0.02% -0.51% +0.33% +0.07% +0.58% +0.81% -0.89% -0.05% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:26:38 $132.5 +0.15% +0.03% +0.38% +1.03% +2.50% +2.75% -0.60% -0.11% WIN
2024-11-29 09:28:41 $132.64 -0.20% -0.51% -0.89% -0.67% -0.78% +0.07% -0.43% -0.27% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:26:38 $130.1 -1.50% -0.28% -1.15% -0.57% +1.07% +2.63% -1.88% -0.45% LOSS
2024-10-16 09:28:20 $117.03 +1.17% +1.61% +2.87% +2.31% +2.12% +3.78% -0.45% -0.13% WIN
2024-10-15 09:28:26 $114.8 -1.01% -1.02% -1.23% -1.47% -2.25% +1.10% -0.51% +0.54% LOSS
2024-10-14 09:26:47 $110.8 +0.18% +0.32% +0.46% +0.46% +1.34% +1.48% -0.23% +0.23% WIN
2024-07-16 09:26:26 $103.03 +0.61% +1.04% +1.19% +3.84% +3.10% +5.90% -0.21% +1.07% WIN
2024-06-26 09:26:58 $97.49 -0.24% -0.55% -0.76% -0.94% -0.62% +0.28% +0.25% -0.11% LOSS
2024-04-16 09:25:23 $90.61 -0.51% -2.31% -1.30% -0.86% -1.62% +0.54% -0.67% +0.11% LOSS
2024-04-15 09:26:39 $87.27 +0.63% +0.84% +0.60% -0.56% -0.32% +2.13% +0.21% +0.61% WIN
2024-04-12 09:28:52 $85.95 +0.26% -0.06% -0.23% -0.20% +0.28% +1.00% -0.97% -0.17% WIN
2024-03-06 09:29:58 $86.25 -0.22% -1.70% -0.03% +1.04% -0.68% +1.97% -1.75% +0.60% LOSS
2023-12-11 09:26:00 $82.37 -0.10% -0.07% -0.47% -0.24% +0.55% +0.56% -0.50% - LOSS
2023-10-18 09:26:00 $77.4 -2.03% -1.82% -2.36% -3.05% -3.26% -0.05% -0.65% -1.25% LOSS
2023-08-29 09:29:00 $84.26 +0.11% +0.97% +0.61% +0.90% +1.53% +1.58% +0.07% +0.18% WIN
2023-07-18 09:27:00 $87.6 -0.29% +1.74% +3.44% +4.01% +4.95% +5.66% -0.57% -0.07% LOSS
2023-07-14 09:25:00 $87.56 -0.31% -0.96% -1.18% -1.38% -2.03% -0.01% -0.07% -0.17% LOSS
2023-06-01 09:29:00 $82.28 -0.28% -0.58% -0.79% -0.02% -0.26% +0.68% -0.98% +0.36% LOSS
2023-05-19 09:29:00 $83.66 -0.17% +0.11% +0.42% +0.36% -1.70% +0.91% -0.35% +0.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.2% win rate and -0.09% average gain, MS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MS historically offers an average upside of +1.43% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.2%, MS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.09%). This suggests MS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.