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MSTX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 112 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-08-16 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Tidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 15, 2024
📊
112
Total Alerts
🎯
58.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.26%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+7.43%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.4%
Avg Gain: -0.39%
Avg Winner: +1.50%
Avg Loser: -2.03%
Best: +5.77%
Worst: -6.21%
Trades: 52/60

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +2.44%
Avg Loser: -2.83%
Best: +8.90%
Worst: -13.16%
Trades: 53/59

30MIN

Win Rate: 58.0%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +3.33%
Avg Loser: -4.00%
Best: +9.35%
Worst: -17.75%
Trades: 65/47

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.1%
Avg Gain: -0.15%
Avg Winner: +4.47%
Avg Loser: -4.61%
Best: +15.19%
Worst: -26.81%
Trades: 55/57

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.65%
Avg Winner: +8.93%
Avg Loser: -7.83%
Best: +27.37%
Worst: -45.10%
Trades: 48/64

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.43%
Best MFE: +33.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 161 min

On average, MSTX alerts reach +7.43% profit potential within 161 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.88%
Worst MAE: -13.92%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.58:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.58x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 112 alerts, MSTX typically reaches +7.43% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 112
Gap Up % 33.9%
Avg Gap -0.06%
Best Gap +2.07%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSTX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:58 $40.3 -0.56% +0.71% +1.81% -0.20% +7.32% +11.59% -0.99% -0.37% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:04 $40.26 -0.92% -1.16% -0.52% +1.24% -0.25% +3.20% -2.38% +0.50% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:28:35 $38.04 +1.20% +2.39% +3.36% +1.95% +7.02% +9.65% -0.95% -0.21% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:50 $42.58 -0.85% -1.32% +1.27% -0.95% -8.67% +2.79% -2.61% -0.35% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:27:59 $42.94 +2.68% +0.72% -0.23% -0.62% -0.26% +3.31% -1.30% -0.68% WIN
2025-02-07 09:25:50 $42.94 +3.49% +4.12% +1.98% -0.45% -4.26% +5.38% -2.28% +0.26% WIN
2025-02-06 09:27:01 $44.1 -0.73% -4.99% -2.72% -1.08% -7.53% +3.31% -3.74% -0.29% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:29 $47.09 +1.30% -1.91% -2.74% -2.21% -7.60% +1.79% -0.28% -0.28% WIN
2025-02-04 09:26:52 $45.1 +3.66% +4.76% +4.80% +3.39% +3.61% +6.91% -0.73% -0.62% WIN
2025-02-03 09:26:17 $37.0 +4.37% +8.65% +6.55% +11.27% +25.54% +27.16% - - WIN
2025-01-31 09:25:05 $45.1 -0.65% -2.77% -1.29% +0.78% -3.75% +6.85% -4.03% -0.02% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:26:16 $46.51 +1.18% +2.60% +5.67% +0.82% -3.23% +5.85% -0.56% -0.02% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:09 $44.49 +1.44% -0.72% -0.54% -1.69% +1.71% +3.30% -5.10% -0.09% WIN
2025-01-28 09:26:04 $46.34 -0.80% -3.88% -0.50% -0.58% -5.11% +2.40% -1.06% +0.30% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:26:59 $44.99 +0.16% -0.09% +6.91% +4.58% +5.07% +10.45% -1.29% -0.07% WIN
2025-01-24 09:29:27 $55.91 -2.36% -1.43% -3.75% -3.01% -12.63% +0.09% -2.67% -0.15% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:27:51 $54.2 +5.77% +6.27% +6.77% +6.08% +0.83% +10.33% -0.68% -0.04% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:34 $58.0 +0.09% +0.16% -0.17% -1.64% -3.72% +3.31% -3.43% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-21 09:28:03 $61.5 -3.85% -8.21% -8.67% -11.07% -3.02% +4.72% -13.92% -0.16% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:25:43 $57.97 -0.13% +1.63% +4.09% +2.17% +6.80% +7.86% -1.19% +0.33% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 58.0% Baseline on MSTX

The 58.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push MSTX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MSTX Strategy →

Why Analyze MSTX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSTX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSTX historically offers an average upside of +7.43% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSTX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 58.0%, MSTX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MSTX performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.26%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.