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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$MSTX

Trade-Ideas alerts 53.2% at 30-min n=278 2024-08-16 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Tidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 14, 2024
Total alerts
278
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
53.2%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
+0.12%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+6.61%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading MSTX on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

Playable MSTX setups

Historical MSTX setups in the simulator. Click to see chart, edge stats, and community discussion.

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.3%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -1.58%
Best: +5.77%
Worst: -6.21%
Trades: 126/149

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.65%
Avg Loser: -2.70%
Best: +9.88%
Worst: -13.16%
Trades: 133/144

30MIN

Win Rate: 53.2%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +3.36%
Avg Loser: -3.61%
Best: +11.86%
Worst: -17.92%
Trades: 148/128

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +4.17%
Avg Loser: -4.41%
Best: +16.23%
Worst: -26.81%
Trades: 139/137

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.6%
Avg Gain: -0.43%
Avg Winner: +7.34%
Avg Loser: -6.72%
Best: +31.95%
Worst: -45.10%
Trades: 124/153

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.61%
Best MFE: +33.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 138 min

On average, MSTX alerts reach +6.61% profit potential within 138 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.40%
Worst MAE: -13.92%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.40%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.75:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.75x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 278 alerts, MSTX typically reaches +6.61% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 278
Gap Up % 41.4%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +2.84%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSTX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $21.31 +1.97% +3.94% +1.31% -1.45% -6.99% +5.07% -0.33% +0.23% WIN
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $18.39 -0.52% +3.70% +4.16% +3.68% +8.75% +10.17% -1.25% -0.43% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $20.27 +0.62% -7.35% -6.41% -8.73% -9.81% +2.52% -1.43% -0.93% WIN
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $20.21 -0.74% -3.59% -3.59% -6.21% -7.72% +0.89% -0.15% +0.62% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $19.36 +2.07% +2.18% +2.33% +0.26% -0.36% +5.38% -2.94% +0.50% WIN
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $20.77 -2.18% -3.81% -3.62% -5.40% -5.31% +0.09% -0.68% -0.73% LOSS
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $20.27 +1.78% +2.12% +0.16% +3.50% +0.94% +5.18% -0.54% +0.15% WIN
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $21.69 +0.92% +3.64% +0.46% -3.00% -4.84% +3.90% -0.28% +1.01% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $21.96 +0.60% +1.72% +3.11% +3.51% +0.19% +4.69% -0.27% +0.39% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $21.34 +1.97% +2.55% +3.23% +1.50% +4.50% +5.58% -0.14% +0.00% WIN
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $14.88 +2.62% +7.19% +11.86% +15.05% +25.87% +26.14% -0.20% +0.54% WIN
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $13.74 +1.38% -2.26% -0.66% +2.84% +2.91% +4.73% -3.60% -0.36% WIN
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $13.73 -0.58% -2.18% -2.02% -5.19% -5.68% +1.01% +0.22% -0.40% LOSS
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $14.12 -0.32% -0.57% -1.70% -1.84% -3.40% +3.05% -1.19% +0.21% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $14.0 +2.43% +2.29% +4.29% +5.79% +9.22% +10.07% -0.35% +0.15% WIN
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $13.98 -0.14% -0.21% +6.08% +7.65% +0.21% +10.80% -2.07% -0.07% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $13.56 -0.92% +1.18% +2.71% +3.61% -0.07% +5.16% -2.65% -0.29% LOSS
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $16.38 -0.92% -3.18% -5.89% -6.41% -11.72% +1.04% -1.47% +0.73% LOSS
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $15.81 -0.51% -3.92% -1.14% +0.51% -2.91% +1.14% -4.62% -1.26% LOSS
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $15.42 +4.99% +5.32% +5.25% +4.92% +8.88% +11.61% -0.65% +0.62% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 53.2% Baseline on MSTX

The 53.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push MSTX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize MSTX Strategy →

Why Analyze MSTX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSTX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSTX historically offers an average upside of +6.61% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSTX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.2%, MSTX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show MSTX performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.12%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.