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Latest signal:

MSTY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 88 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-06-05 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (88 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Feb 22, 2024
📊
88
Total Alerts
🎯
48.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.47%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.86%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 38.6%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +0.64%
Avg Loser: -1.04%
Best: +2.45%
Worst: -5.60%
Trades: 34/52

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.7%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -1.35%
Best: +4.03%
Worst: -6.45%
Trades: 42/46

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: +0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.75%
Avg Loser: -1.47%
Best: +13.06%
Worst: -7.11%
Trades: 41/47

60MIN

Win Rate: 38.6%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +2.11%
Avg Loser: -1.78%
Best: +13.89%
Worst: -12.79%
Trades: 34/52

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +3.26%
Avg Loser: -4.04%
Best: +18.45%
Worst: -22.95%
Trades: 43/45

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.86%
Best MFE: +21.36%
Avg Time to MFE: 167 min

On average, MSTY alerts reach +2.86% profit potential within 167 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.44%
Worst MAE: -6.12%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.44%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.98:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 88 alerts, MSTY typically reaches +2.86% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 88
Gap Up % 38.6%
Avg Gap -0.04%
Best Gap +1.48%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSTY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:32 $24.76 +0.48% +0.85% +0.53% -0.10% +2.71% +4.12% -0.44% -0.04% WIN
2025-02-13 09:27:53 $24.84 -0.79% -1.09% -0.77% -0.12% -0.48% +1.01% -1.73% -0.36% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:27:31 $26.15 -0.36% +0.65% +1.11% +0.49% +2.72% +3.79% -0.84% -0.19% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:27:35 $27.26 -0.84% -0.18% +0.59% -0.33% -3.45% +1.06% -1.10% -0.22% LOSS
2025-02-10 09:29:50 $27.23 +0.70% +0.11% -0.37% -0.13% +0.15% +1.21% -0.55% -0.07% WIN
2025-02-07 09:28:19 $27.08 +1.92% +1.26% +0.74% +0.26% -1.29% +2.22% -0.80% -0.63% WIN
2025-02-06 09:29:48 $27.45 +0.40% -1.64% -1.42% -1.24% -3.57% +1.24% -1.64% +0.07% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:43 $27.93 -0.39% -0.54% -1.07% -0.82% -2.72% +0.50% -0.04% +0.07% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:27:51 $27.44 +1.04% +1.53% +1.67% +0.98% +1.35% +2.31% -0.51% -0.18% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:12 $25.16 +1.59% +3.86% +3.06% +4.77% +9.82% +10.17% -0.12% -0.04% WIN
2025-01-31 09:29:02 $27.2 -0.71% -0.96% -0.26% +0.37% -1.29% +2.50% -1.56% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:27:07 $27.48 +0.85% +0.91% +1.49% -0.11% -1.38% +2.07% -0.33% - WIN
2025-01-29 09:26:24 $26.95 +0.33% -0.07% -0.22% -0.87% +0.85% +1.37% -2.26% +0.19% WIN
2025-01-28 09:26:03 $27.39 -0.40% -1.57% -0.15% -0.26% -2.30% +0.99% -0.40% +0.40% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:01 $27.19 -0.59% -0.61% +2.15% +1.29% +1.54% +3.64% -1.14% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:28:54 $29.32 -1.01% -0.61% -1.60% -1.09% -4.71% +0.20% -1.06% +0.14% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:15 $28.87 +2.01% +3.01% +3.05% +2.67% +0.59% +4.02% -0.24% -0.07% WIN
2025-01-22 09:25:27 $29.6 +0.03% +0.34% -0.10% -0.57% -1.39% +1.18% -1.52% - WIN
2025-01-21 09:29:44 $29.97 -1.94% -3.30% -2.74% -3.84% -0.77% +1.83% -5.24% +0.07% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:28:24 $29.59 +0.17% -0.24% -0.10% -0.20% +0.95% +1.31% -0.63% -0.07% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MSTY Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.9% win rate and -0.47% average gain, MSTY alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MSTY for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MSTY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSTY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSTY historically offers an average upside of +2.86% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSTY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.9%, MSTY shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MSTY may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MSTY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.47%). This suggests MSTY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.