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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$MSTY

Trade-Ideas alerts 48.4% at 30-min n=219 2024-06-05 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Feb 21, 2024
Total alerts
219
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
48.4%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
-0.03%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+2.58%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading MSTY on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.0%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -0.79%
Best: +2.45%
Worst: -5.60%
Trades: 81/135

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.1%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -1.27%
Best: +4.54%
Worst: -6.45%
Trades: 101/118

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.52%
Avg Loser: -1.50%
Best: +13.06%
Worst: -8.79%
Trades: 106/112

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.4%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +1.86%
Avg Loser: -1.77%
Best: +13.89%
Worst: -12.79%
Trades: 95/120

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +2.94%
Avg Loser: -3.19%
Best: +18.45%
Worst: -22.95%
Trades: 102/117

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.58%
Best MFE: +21.36%
Avg Time to MFE: 136 min

On average, MSTY alerts reach +2.58% profit potential within 136 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.12%
Worst MAE: -6.12%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.12%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.31:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.31x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 219 alerts, MSTY typically reaches +2.58% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 219
Gap Up % 35.2%
Avg Gap -0.09%
Best Gap +1.48%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MSTY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $16.84 +0.74% +1.37% +0.50% -0.42% -2.85% +2.02% -0.12% +0.06% WIN
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $15.85 -0.38% +1.36% +1.58% +1.45% +3.79% +4.29% -0.76% -0.09% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $16.74 +0.47% -2.93% -2.51% -3.56% -4.12% +1.25% -0.30% -0.00% WIN
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $16.77 -0.54% -1.73% -1.76% -2.98% -3.46% +0.36% -0.24% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $16.45 +0.55% +0.67% +0.76% -0.24% -0.49% +1.98% -1.52% +0.12% WIN
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $17.04 -1.45% -2.27% -2.20% -3.00% -3.21% -0.51% -1.51% -0.51% LOSS
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $16.78 +0.55% +0.85% +0.07% +1.44% +0.37% +2.16% -0.17% +0.37% WIN
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $17.64 +0.38% +1.53% +0.11% -1.33% -2.32% +1.59% -0.06% +0.51% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $17.72 +0.31% +0.85% +1.50% +1.61% -0.11% +2.15% +0.00% +0.06% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $17.5 +0.91% +1.26% +1.37% +0.63% +2.06% +2.74% -0.20% -0.14% WIN
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $14.97 +1.04% +2.54% +4.17% +5.41% +10.09% +10.29% +0.07% +0.47% WIN
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $14.41 +0.74% -1.06% -0.02% +1.51% +1.58% +2.37% -1.48% -0.09% WIN
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $14.64 -0.41% -1.02% -0.97% -2.42% -2.73% +0.14% +0.14% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $14.8 -0.34% -0.47% -0.96% -0.90% -1.62% +0.91% -0.54% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $14.79 +0.54% +0.37% +1.22% +1.76% +2.98% +3.38% -0.44% -0.34% WIN
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $14.7 -0.61% -0.75% +2.11% +3.07% -0.14% +4.49% -1.63% -0.48% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $14.45 -0.94% +0.01% +0.70% +1.18% -0.27% +1.81% -1.79% -0.75% LOSS
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $15.9 -0.16% -1.09% -2.22% -2.72% -4.86% +0.93% -0.24% +0.80% LOSS
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $15.63 +0.07% -1.34% -0.13% +0.58% -0.90% +0.83% -1.60% -0.06% WIN
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $15.53 +1.29% +2.12% +2.06% +1.80% +3.41% +4.54% -0.19% +0.13% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ MSTY Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.4% win rate and -0.03% average gain, MSTY alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MSTY for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MSTY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MSTY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MSTY historically offers an average upside of +2.58% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MSTY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.4%, MSTY shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MSTY may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MSTY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.03%). This suggests MSTY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.