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MTB Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 8 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-08 → 2023-04-17

⚠️ Small sample size (8 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 02, 1973 🔗 www3.mtb.com
💰 Market Cap: $32.86B 👥 Employees: 22,383
M&T Bank is a US regional bank with roughly $210 billion in assets as of June 30, 2025. Headquartered in Buffalo, New York, the bank's footprint is mostly concentrated in New England and the US Mid-Atlantic. M&T Bank boasts a community banking approach, and boasts over 900 branches in 13 states and Washington, D.C. Apart from retail and commercial banking, M&T Bank also has wealth management operations through Wilmington Trust and a partnership with LPL Financial, and a corporate trust businesses.
📊
8
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.28%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.17%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.54%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +1.40%
Worst: -2.99%
Trades: 2/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.45%
Avg Winner: +1.00%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +1.02%
Worst: -2.21%
Trades: 2/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.28%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -1.40%
Best: +1.36%
Worst: -2.69%
Trades: 4/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.33%
Avg Loser: -1.44%
Best: +1.63%
Worst: -3.42%
Trades: 4/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: +0.69%
Avg Winner: +3.75%
Avg Loser: -1.15%
Best: +7.86%
Worst: -2.80%
Trades: 3/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.17%
Best MFE: +7.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 161 min

On average, MTB alerts reach +2.17% profit potential within 161 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.73%
Worst MAE: -2.21%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.73%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.98:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.98x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 8 alerts, MTB typically reaches +2.17% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 8
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.21%
Best Gap +1.48%

🏭 Sector Comparison: STATE COMMERCIAL BANKS

How MTB compares to 29 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MTB: -0.54% Sector: -0.03% -0.52%
EOD Gain
MTB: +0.69% Sector: -0.04% +0.73%
Avg MFE
MTB: +2.17% Sector: +1.25% +0.91%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MTB alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-04-17 09:27:00 $116.5 -1.10% -0.92% +0.63% +1.12% +7.86% +7.97% -1.82% -0.43% LOSS
2023-02-22 09:25:00 $155.45 -0.51% -0.06% -0.35% -0.17% -0.80% +0.35% -0.83% +0.35% LOSS
2023-02-21 09:28:00 $159.92 -0.27% -0.48% -0.78% -0.96% -2.80% -0.10% -0.78% -0.48% LOSS
2022-12-07 09:25:00 $150.5 -2.99% -2.21% -2.69% -3.42% -1.68% +1.00% -0.01% -1.16% LOSS
2022-04-25 09:25:00 $171.8 -0.76% -1.48% -1.77% -1.20% +1.28% +1.64% -2.21% -0.62% LOSS
2022-02-11 09:25:00 $182.36 -0.33% -0.48% +0.68% +1.22% -0.03% +2.27% -0.78% -0.63% LOSS
2022-02-10 09:25:00 $183.9 +0.22% +0.98% +0.72% +1.36% -0.43% +1.66% -0.23% -0.23% WIN
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $180.48 +1.40% +1.02% +1.36% +1.63% +2.11% +2.55% +0.85% +1.48% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MTB Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.28% average gain, MTB alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MTB for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MTB with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MTB. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MTB historically offers an average upside of +2.17% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MTB Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, MTB shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MTB may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MTB shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.28%). This suggests MTB is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.