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MTN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-17 → 2023-06-20

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Feb 04, 1997 🔗 www.vailresorts.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.94B 👥 Employees: 46,600
Vail Resorts Inc Bhd is a resorts and casinos company that operates mountain resorts and ski areas. The company has three business segments that include Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate. The Mountain segment operates numerous ski resort properties that offer a variety of winter and summer activities, such as skiing, snowboarding, snowshoeing, hiking, and mountain biking. The Lodging segment owns and operates hotels and condominiums. The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and leases real estate, typically near its other properties. The company generates the vast majority of its revenue within the United States.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.96%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
-0.39%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.18%
Avg Winner: +2.40%
Avg Loser: -2.37%
Best: +2.40%
Worst: -5.72%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -1.96%
Avg Winner: +2.61%
Avg Loser: -4.25%
Best: +2.61%
Worst: -5.79%
Trades: 1/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.76%
Avg Winner: +2.44%
Avg Loser: -3.15%
Best: +2.44%
Worst: -6.06%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.77%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -4.29%
Best: +1.80%
Worst: -7.48%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.82%
Avg Winner: +1.67%
Avg Loser: -4.32%
Best: +1.67%
Worst: -6.49%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: -0.39%
Best MFE: +3.16%
Avg Time to MFE: 9 min

On average, MTN alerts reach -0.39% profit potential within 9 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.38%
Worst MAE: -6.44%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.29:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, MTN typically reaches -0.39% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around -0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -1.19%
Best Gap +2.40%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION

How MTN compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MTN: -1.42% Sector: +0.00% -1.42%
EOD Gain
MTN: -3.45% Sector: +7.84% -11.29%
Avg MFE
MTN: -0.56% Sector: +2.23% -2.79%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MTN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-06-20 09:28:00 $248.47 -0.46% - -0.57% -0.16% -0.93% +0.09% -0.54% -0.54% LOSS
2022-10-24 09:25:00 $227.71 -5.72% -5.79% -6.06% -7.48% -5.53% -4.98% -6.44% -5.97% LOSS
2022-06-13 09:25:00 $244.0 -0.93% -2.70% -2.83% -5.23% -6.49% +0.16% -0.93% -0.65% LOSS
2022-05-17 09:25:00 $231.36 +2.40% +2.61% +2.44% +1.80% +1.67% +3.16% +2.40% +2.40% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MTN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -1.96% average gain, MTN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MTN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MTN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MTN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MTN historically offers an average upside of -0.39% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MTN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, MTN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MTN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MTN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.96%). This suggests MTN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.