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MUR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-28 → 2023-07-05

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 06, 1983 🔗 www.murphyoilcorp.com
💰 Market Cap: $4.51B 👥 Employees: 750
Murphy Oil Corp is an oil and gas exploration and production company, with both onshore and offshore operations and properties. It operates in two geographic reportable segments the United States and Canada. It generates the majority of its revenue form the United States.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
11.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.02%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.44%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 11.1%
Avg Gain: -1.02%
Avg Winner: +0.70%
Avg Loser: -1.24%
Best: +0.70%
Worst: -3.21%
Trades: 1/8

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.79%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.79%
Best: -0.15%
Worst: -3.87%
Trades: 0/9

30MIN

Win Rate: 11.1%
Avg Gain: -1.77%
Avg Winner: +0.02%
Avg Loser: -2.00%
Best: +0.02%
Worst: -4.16%
Trades: 1/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.56%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.56%
Best: -0.22%
Worst: -4.45%
Trades: 0/9

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.22%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.22%
Best: -0.84%
Worst: -1.83%
Trades: 0/9

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.44%
Best MFE: +1.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 108 min

On average, MUR alerts reach +0.44% profit potential within 108 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.88%
Worst MAE: -5.78%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.24:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, MUR typically reaches +0.44% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 44.4%
Avg Gap -0.64%
Best Gap +0.91%

🏭 Sector Comparison: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

How MUR compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
MUR: -1.02% Sector: -0.16% -0.86%
EOD Gain
MUR: -1.22% Sector: +59.69% -60.91%
Avg MFE
MUR: +0.44% Sector: +2.88% -2.44%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical MUR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-07-05 09:25:00 $38.23 -0.21% -0.97% -0.78% -0.75% -0.84% +0.37% -0.37% +0.37% LOSS
2023-01-12 09:29:00 $42.68 -1.55% -2.32% -1.78% -0.91% -1.83% +0.59% -2.48% -1.36% LOSS
2023-01-11 09:28:00 $41.99 +0.70% -0.15% -0.45% -0.99% -0.88% +1.60% -0.07% +0.91% WIN
2023-01-09 09:25:00 $42.5 -0.19% -0.21% +0.02% -0.66% -1.41% +0.29% -0.75% +0.24% LOSS
2022-11-28 09:25:00 $45.85 -1.31% -0.67% -0.70% -0.22% -1.05% +1.19% -2.44% -0.35% LOSS
2022-11-23 09:25:00 $48.02 -3.21% -2.05% -2.04% -1.87% -1.19% -0.87% -3.25% -2.14% LOSS
2022-11-21 09:25:00 $46.5 -1.58% -3.87% -3.46% -4.45% -0.99% -0.62% -5.78% -2.15% LOSS
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $50.0 -1.54% -2.90% -2.62% -1.52% -1.06% -0.10% -3.36% -1.40% LOSS
2022-03-28 09:25:00 $40.18 -0.32% -2.96% -4.16% -2.66% -1.74% +1.57% +1.57% +0.15% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ MUR Shows Negative Expectancy

With 11.1% win rate and -1.02% average gain, MUR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider MUR for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze MUR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for MUR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, MUR historically offers an average upside of +0.44% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 MUR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 11.1%, MUR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests MUR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: MUR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.02%). This suggests MUR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.