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NCMI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 56 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-18 → 2024-03-19

⚠️ Small sample size (56 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

National CineMedia, Inc. SERVICES-ADVERTISING (SIC 7310)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 08, 2007 🔗 www.ncm.com
💰 Market Cap: $351.9M 👥 Employees: 254
National CineMedia Inc is a cinema advertising platform in the U.S. It derives revenue from the sale of advertising to national, regional and local businesses through The Noovie Show, the cinema advertising and entertainment show seen on movie screens across the U.S., on LEN, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theater lobbies.
📊
56
Total Alerts
🎯
71.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+413.36%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+9.97%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 39.3%
Avg Gain: -0.49%
Avg Winner: +3.10%
Avg Loser: -2.89%
Best: +11.49%
Worst: -10.60%
Trades: 22/33

15MIN

Win Rate: 41.8%
Avg Gain: -0.65%
Avg Winner: +3.98%
Avg Loser: -4.24%
Best: +16.61%
Worst: -14.05%
Trades: 23/30

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.9%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +3.64%
Avg Loser: -5.24%
Best: +16.87%
Worst: -17.91%
Trades: 28/27

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +5.38%
Avg Loser: -4.80%
Best: +21.82%
Worst: -21.72%
Trades: 26/27

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +413.36%
Avg Winner: +581.10%
Avg Loser: -5.97%
Best: +1288.70%
Worst: -21.64%
Trades: 40/16

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +9.97%
Best MFE: +103.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 115 min

On average, NCMI alerts reach +9.97% profit potential within 115 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.13%
Worst MAE: -24.78%
Avg Time to MAE: 22 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.13%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.42:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.42x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 56 alerts, NCMI typically reaches +9.97% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 8.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 56
Gap Up % 41.1%
Avg Gap -0.67%
Best Gap +7.14%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-ADVERTISING

How NCMI compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NCMI: -0.38% Sector: -0.25% -0.13%
EOD Gain
NCMI: +428.25% Sector: +327.98% +100.27%
Avg MFE
NCMI: +10.28% Sector: +11.11% -0.83%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NCMI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-19 09:28:52 $5.16 +5.37% +4.07% +2.71% +0.87% -1.94% +6.59% -2.33% +0.39% WIN
2023-08-18 09:27:00 $3.42 +0.58% - +0.58% +0.29% +12.87% +14.04% -4.97% +0.88% WIN
2023-08-08 09:26:00 $3.13 +1.89% +8.95% +4.47% +3.83% +3.83% +11.18% -0.96% -0.64% WIN
2023-08-03 09:29:00 $0.35 -3.12% -2.97% -3.69% - +879.14% +4.74% -8.55% -4.54% LOSS
2023-07-24 09:26:00 $0.32 +4.04% +0.99% +0.68% +4.01% +8.76% +11.34% -0.56% +3.51% WIN
2023-06-29 09:26:00 $0.33 +0.44% -1.65% - -3.12% -2.60% +3.06% -0.03% +3.06% WIN
2023-06-28 09:25:00 $0.35 +0.57% -4.15% -1.29% -2.46% +896.57% +4.43% -5.58% -0.34% WIN
2023-06-22 09:25:00 $0.3 -2.02% -6.70% -3.17% -7.38% +789.19% +0.03% -5.69% -1.65% LOSS
2023-06-12 09:27:00 $0.35 -1.95% -0.55% +1.72% -0.23% +885.59% +4.18% -1.95% -1.50% LOSS
2023-06-09 09:27:00 $0.35 +1.42% -0.00% -1.59% -1.73% +1.16% +1.53% -2.89% +1.42% WIN
2023-06-06 09:28:00 $0.34 +0.18% +3.15% +2.88% +1.70% +2.91% +8.02% -0.03% +2.88% WIN
2023-06-05 09:29:00 $0.34 +3.48% -3.13% +1.45% +10.14% +940.58% +21.74% -5.80% -3.91% WIN
2023-05-24 09:29:00 $0.31 -4.35% -4.70% -2.38% +0.06% -5.30% +1.65% -7.02% -7.02% LOSS
2023-05-10 09:29:00 $0.32 - - +2.88% -1.56% +891.25% +4.81% -4.38% -0.06% -
2023-05-08 09:28:00 $0.31 +0.45% +4.04% +2.05% +0.51% +879.13% +4.04% -0.26% -0.26% WIN
2023-05-03 09:28:00 $0.27 -0.18% +4.31% +9.65% +8.35% +9.65% +13.66% -0.22% +4.06% LOSS
2023-05-02 09:28:00 $0.25 +7.26% +7.14% +6.94% +7.70% +11.69% +15.16% -0.28% +3.67% WIN
2023-05-01 09:27:00 $0.31 -5.03% -5.32% -5.12% -4.18% +846.48% - - - LOSS
2023-04-28 09:26:00 $0.29 -4.28% +0.03% -3.93% +0.03% +924.49% +9.62% -10.83% -8.04% LOSS
2023-04-27 09:28:00 $0.22 +3.10% +0.27% +0.32% +6.20% +15.41% +17.82% -7.34% -4.24% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 71.4% Baseline on NCMI

The 71.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NCMI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NCMI Strategy →

Why Analyze NCMI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NCMI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NCMI historically offers an average upside of +9.97% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NCMI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.4%, NCMI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NCMI performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +413.36%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.