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NCNO Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-23 → 2024-12-05

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

nCino, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 14, 2020 🔗 www.ncino.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.79B 👥 Employees: 1,833
Ncino Inc is a provider of cloud-based software for financial institutions. Its software solution digitizes, automates, and streamlines inefficient and complex processes & workflows and utilizes data analytics & artificial intelligence that enables financial institutions to onboard new clients, make loans, and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposits, and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. It also offers professional services, including configuration & implementation, training, and advisory services. The company generates the majority of its revenue from subscription services. The company caters to financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, and credit unions. The vast majority of its revenue comes from the United States.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+1.03%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+4.82%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +1.03%
Avg Winner: +2.89%
Avg Loser: -2.69%
Best: +5.74%
Worst: -2.69%
Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +2.37%
Avg Winner: +4.60%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +8.05%
Worst: -2.09%
Trades: 2/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +2.81%
Avg Winner: +5.55%
Avg Loser: -2.66%
Best: +10.53%
Worst: -2.66%
Trades: 2/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +2.55%
Avg Winner: +5.09%
Avg Loser: -2.52%
Best: +8.36%
Worst: -2.52%
Trades: 2/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -1.15%
Avg Winner: +2.15%
Avg Loser: -7.75%
Best: +3.15%
Worst: -7.75%
Trades: 2/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.82%
Best MFE: +11.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 17 min

On average, NCNO alerts reach +4.82% profit potential within 17 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.96%
Worst MAE: -1.55%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.96%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.04:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.04x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, NCNO typically reaches +4.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap +0.22%
Best Gap +0.80%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How NCNO compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NCNO: +1.03% Sector: -0.09% +1.12%
EOD Gain
NCNO: -1.15% Sector: +73.64% -74.79%
Avg MFE
NCNO: +4.82% Sector: +4.32% +0.49%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NCNO alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-05 09:28:13 $36.14 +5.74% +8.05% +10.53% +8.36% +3.15% +11.48% -1.55% -0.30% WIN
2023-06-20 09:29:00 $32.5 -2.69% -2.09% -2.66% -2.52% -7.75% +0.31% -1.26% +0.15% LOSS
2023-01-23 09:29:00 $26.25 +0.04% +1.14% +0.57% +1.83% +1.14% +2.67% -0.06% +0.80% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on NCNO

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NCNO's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NCNO Strategy →

Why Analyze NCNO with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NCNO. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NCNO historically offers an average upside of +4.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NCNO Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, NCNO shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NCNO performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.03%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.