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NOG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 14 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-21 → 2023-10-27

⚠️ Small sample size (14 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS (SIC 1311)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 10, 2007 🔗 www.northernoil.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.29B 👥 Employees: 49
Northern Oil & Gas Inc is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties. Its principal business is crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production. The company's oil and natural gas sales come from three geographic areas in the United States: the Williston Basin (North Dakota and Montana), the Permian Basin (New Mexico and Texas), the Uinta Basin, and the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania and Ohio).
📊
14
Total Alerts
🎯
57.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.63%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.44%
Avg Loser: -0.63%
Best: +0.66%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 8/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +1.41%
Worst: -1.57%
Trades: 6/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +1.70%
Worst: -2.14%
Trades: 8/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.79%
Avg Loser: -1.47%
Best: +2.01%
Worst: -1.82%
Trades: 8/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +1.15%
Avg Winner: +4.64%
Avg Loser: -1.46%
Best: +8.20%
Worst: -2.40%
Trades: 6/8

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.63%
Best MFE: +8.26%
Avg Time to MFE: 139 min

On average, NOG alerts reach +2.63% profit potential within 139 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.95%
Worst MAE: -3.29%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.95%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.78:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.78x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 14 alerts, NOG typically reaches +2.63% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 14
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +0.80%

🏭 Sector Comparison: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

How NOG compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NOG: -0.02% Sector: -0.16% +0.14%
EOD Gain
NOG: +1.15% Sector: +59.69% -58.54%
Avg MFE
NOG: +2.63% Sector: +2.88% -0.26%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NOG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-10-27 09:25:00 $38.84 +0.22% -0.90% -1.85% -1.57% -1.18% +0.62% +0.15% +0.15% WIN
2023-10-11 09:28:00 $38.8 +0.57% +1.03% +1.19% +0.28% +1.11% +2.14% -0.13% -0.08% WIN
2023-09-21 09:26:00 $39.18 +0.48% +0.01% -0.23% +0.03% -1.20% +0.82% +0.05% +0.05% WIN
2023-08-18 09:28:00 $40.5 +0.26% +0.62% +0.22% +0.01% +1.60% +2.01% -0.91% -0.49% WIN
2023-05-26 09:28:00 $31.47 -1.30% -1.49% -2.14% -1.78% -1.53% -0.83% -1.33% -0.92% LOSS
2023-05-23 09:29:00 $32.16 -0.31% -0.78% +0.06% +1.35% -1.77% +1.52% -1.49% -0.44% LOSS
2023-05-16 09:26:00 $30.85 +0.62% -0.39% -0.68% -1.82% -2.04% +1.13% -0.52% +0.45% WIN
2023-02-07 09:29:00 $31.4 -0.06% +0.32% +1.45% +1.43% +6.43% +6.43% -0.51% +0.80% LOSS
2023-01-27 09:26:00 $35.47 +0.30% -0.76% -0.89% -1.30% -2.40% +1.17% -0.31% +0.08% WIN
2022-11-15 09:25:00 $38.02 -1.18% -1.24% +0.62% +0.87% -0.05% +1.53% -3.29% -1.03% LOSS
2022-10-18 09:25:00 $33.99 -0.60% +0.61% -0.53% -1.74% -1.50% +0.65% -1.03% -0.18% LOSS
2022-10-13 09:25:00 $30.75 +0.66% -1.11% +1.45% +0.33% +8.20% +8.26% -1.11% +0.46% WIN
2022-10-12 09:25:00 $29.36 +0.44% +1.41% +1.70% +2.01% +6.30% +6.30% -0.17% +0.14% WIN
2022-06-21 09:25:00 $29.6 -0.34% -1.57% +0.71% -0.61% +4.19% +5.00% -2.64% -0.34% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NOG Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 57.1% win rate, NOG has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making NOG profitable.

🔧 Fix NOG Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze NOG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NOG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NOG historically offers an average upside of +2.63% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NOG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 57.1%, NOG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.63%) outweigh average wins (+0.44%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NOG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.02%). This suggests NOG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.