Latest signal:
NOG Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 14 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-21 → 2023-10-27
⚠️ Small sample size (14 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, NOG alerts reach +2.63% profit potential within 139 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.95%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.78x the typical drawdown.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 14 alerts, NOG typically reaches +2.63% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.1% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
How NOG compares to 51 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical NOG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-27 | 09:25:00 | $38.84 | +0.22% | -0.90% | -1.85% | -1.57% | -1.18% | +0.62% | +0.15% | +0.15% | WIN |
| 2023-10-11 | 09:28:00 | $38.8 | +0.57% | +1.03% | +1.19% | +0.28% | +1.11% | +2.14% | -0.13% | -0.08% | WIN |
| 2023-09-21 | 09:26:00 | $39.18 | +0.48% | +0.01% | -0.23% | +0.03% | -1.20% | +0.82% | +0.05% | +0.05% | WIN |
| 2023-08-18 | 09:28:00 | $40.5 | +0.26% | +0.62% | +0.22% | +0.01% | +1.60% | +2.01% | -0.91% | -0.49% | WIN |
| 2023-05-26 | 09:28:00 | $31.47 | -1.30% | -1.49% | -2.14% | -1.78% | -1.53% | -0.83% | -1.33% | -0.92% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-23 | 09:29:00 | $32.16 | -0.31% | -0.78% | +0.06% | +1.35% | -1.77% | +1.52% | -1.49% | -0.44% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-16 | 09:26:00 | $30.85 | +0.62% | -0.39% | -0.68% | -1.82% | -2.04% | +1.13% | -0.52% | +0.45% | WIN |
| 2023-02-07 | 09:29:00 | $31.4 | -0.06% | +0.32% | +1.45% | +1.43% | +6.43% | +6.43% | -0.51% | +0.80% | LOSS |
| 2023-01-27 | 09:26:00 | $35.47 | +0.30% | -0.76% | -0.89% | -1.30% | -2.40% | +1.17% | -0.31% | +0.08% | WIN |
| 2022-11-15 | 09:25:00 | $38.02 | -1.18% | -1.24% | +0.62% | +0.87% | -0.05% | +1.53% | -3.29% | -1.03% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-18 | 09:25:00 | $33.99 | -0.60% | +0.61% | -0.53% | -1.74% | -1.50% | +0.65% | -1.03% | -0.18% | LOSS |
| 2022-10-13 | 09:25:00 | $30.75 | +0.66% | -1.11% | +1.45% | +0.33% | +8.20% | +8.26% | -1.11% | +0.46% | WIN |
| 2022-10-12 | 09:25:00 | $29.36 | +0.44% | +1.41% | +1.70% | +2.01% | +6.30% | +6.30% | -0.17% | +0.14% | WIN |
| 2022-06-21 | 09:25:00 | $29.6 | -0.34% | -1.57% | +0.71% | -0.61% | +4.19% | +5.00% | -2.64% | -0.34% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ NOG Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 57.1% win rate, NOG has -0.02% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making NOG profitable.
🔧 Fix NOG Risk/Reward →Why Analyze NOG with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NOG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, NOG historically offers an average upside of +2.63% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 NOG Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 57.1%, NOG shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-0.63%) outweigh average wins (+0.44%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: NOG shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.02%). This suggests NOG is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.