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NOTE Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 45 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-31 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (45 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC (SIC 7389)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 01, 2022 🔗 www.fiscalnote.com
💰 Market Cap: $24.5M 👥 Employees: 439
FiscalNote Holdings Inc is a provider of world-wide policy and market intelligence solutions. Leveraging AI and analytics, it delivers actionable legal and policy insights for businesses, government institutions, and nonprofits. Its suite of products includes FiscalNote Core, CQ Federal, and EU Issue Tracker, facilitating effective policy management and risk mitigation. With its analysis from FrontierView, Oxford Analytica, and Dragonfly Eye, it offers geopolitical and market intelligence services. Operating as one segment, it generates revenue by integrating policy intelligence into daily operations. Geographically the company generates the majority of its revenue from North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia, with the majority generated from North America.
📊
45
Total Alerts
🎯
37.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-1.29%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+6.82%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 31.1%
Avg Gain: -1.76%
Avg Winner: +2.28%
Avg Loser: -3.70%
Best: +9.91%
Worst: -8.11%
Trades: 14/30

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -2.59%
Avg Winner: +2.85%
Avg Loser: -3.95%
Best: +7.66%
Worst: -8.52%
Trades: 9/36

30MIN

Win Rate: 31.1%
Avg Gain: -2.33%
Avg Winner: +3.38%
Avg Loser: -5.08%
Best: +7.03%
Worst: -14.21%
Trades: 14/30

60MIN

Win Rate: 31.1%
Avg Gain: -1.99%
Avg Winner: +5.35%
Avg Loser: -5.48%
Best: +11.56%
Worst: -17.41%
Trades: 14/30

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 37.8%
Avg Gain: -1.29%
Avg Winner: +8.70%
Avg Loser: -7.63%
Best: +19.05%
Worst: -27.49%
Trades: 17/27

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.82%
Best MFE: +25.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 105 min

On average, NOTE alerts reach +6.82% profit potential within 105 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.93%
Worst MAE: -12.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.93%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.74:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 45 alerts, NOTE typically reaches +6.82% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 45
Gap Up % 28.9%
Avg Gap -0.62%
Best Gap +3.31%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

How NOTE compares to 59 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NOTE: -1.76% Sector: -0.05% -1.71%
EOD Gain
NOTE: -1.29% Sector: +1758.96% -1760.25%
Avg MFE
NOTE: +6.82% Sector: +2.89% +3.93%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NOTE alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:27:26 $1.96 -4.59% -7.91% -11.18% -9.95% -14.80% +1.53% -2.56% +1.53% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:26:24 $2.02 -3.96% -1.98% -5.94% -7.92% -4.46% +0.49% -7.92% -0.99% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:27:56 $1.79 -1.12% -0.55% +0.28% +8.10% +3.91% +12.29% -4.47% -1.68% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:29:08 $1.71 -4.39% -2.05% +2.34% +5.58% +9.36% +15.79% -7.02% -0.58% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:29:52 $1.32 -3.41% -1.14% +2.69% +7.55% +6.06% +13.68% -5.30% - LOSS
2025-01-23 09:29:51 $1.59 -4.09% -4.47% -8.80% -9.12% -8.80% - -3.14% - LOSS
2025-01-22 09:29:13 $1.39 +2.88% +3.55% +3.60% +5.76% +13.67% +15.11% -1.08% -0.72% WIN
2025-01-21 09:25:53 $1.34 -3.69% -5.90% -3.81% -2.95% +2.24% +14.93% -7.09% +1.49% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:02 $1.3 -3.08% +0.38% -2.68% -2.38% -2.31% +1.92% -3.85% -0.77% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:26:32 $1.28 -5.86% -2.68% -2.34% -0.65% +5.47% +7.03% -6.64% -2.34% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:29:43 $1.21 +0.83% -0.03% +0.41% -1.24% +4.13% +4.13% -4.13% +3.31% WIN
2025-01-13 09:25:57 $1.22 -3.28% -1.64% +1.57% -4.10% -1.64% +2.46% -5.74% +0.82% LOSS
2025-01-10 09:25:43 $1.15 +0.87% +3.93% +3.91% +8.70% +13.91% +13.91% - +0.87% WIN
2025-01-08 09:26:40 $1.29 -5.04% -8.14% -7.36% -4.61% -9.30% +0.78% -2.33% -0.78% LOSS
2025-01-07 09:29:06 $1.48 +0.72% -2.03% -0.68% -6.80% -10.14% +2.70% -4.73% -2.03% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:53 $1.29 -2.36% +3.49% +6.59% +9.99% +6.20% +13.18% -4.65% -0.78% LOSS
2025-01-03 09:27:17 $1.05 -3.81% -1.89% -1.88% +1.87% +19.05% +25.71% -3.81% -1.90% LOSS
2025-01-02 09:25:03 $1.08 -0.04% -7.36% -6.18% -3.69% -3.70% +3.70% -9.26% -0.93% LOSS
2024-12-31 09:27:51 $1.16 - -3.45% -2.62% -4.31% -7.76% +0.86% +0.86% - -
2024-12-30 09:29:06 $1.2 -4.17% -4.17% -2.50% -2.53% -4.17% +0.83% -4.17% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NOTE Shows Negative Expectancy

With 37.8% win rate and -1.29% average gain, NOTE alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NOTE for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NOTE with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NOTE. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NOTE historically offers an average upside of +6.82% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NOTE Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 37.8%, NOTE shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NOTE may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NOTE shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -1.29%). This suggests NOTE is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.