FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

NOV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 7 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-17 → 2023-12-08

⚠️ Small sample size (7 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 29, 1996 🔗 www.nov.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.71B 👥 Employees: 34,010
NOV (formerly National Oilwell Varco) is a leading supplier of oil and gas drilling rig equipment and products, such as downhole tools, drill pipe, and well casing. The company operates on a global scale, with international markets contributing nearly two thirds of its annual revenue.
📊
7
Total Alerts
🎯
71.4%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+1.12%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+5.99%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 57.1%
Avg Gain: +0.48%
Avg Winner: +1.39%
Avg Loser: -0.74%
Best: +2.04%
Worst: -1.72%
Trades: 4/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +1.12%
Avg Winner: +2.23%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +5.90%
Worst: -2.13%
Trades: 5/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 42.9%
Avg Gain: +1.88%
Avg Winner: +5.34%
Avg Loser: -0.71%
Best: +9.24%
Worst: -2.53%
Trades: 3/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 71.4%
Avg Gain: +3.75%
Avg Winner: +5.84%
Avg Loser: -1.47%
Best: +18.10%
Worst: -2.64%
Trades: 5/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 28.6%
Avg Gain: +2.02%
Avg Winner: +9.39%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +17.27%
Worst: -1.72%
Trades: 2/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.99%
Best MFE: +25.46%
Avg Time to MFE: 91 min

On average, NOV alerts reach +5.99% profit potential within 91 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.88%
Worst MAE: -3.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.88%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.79:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.79x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 7 alerts, NOV typically reaches +5.99% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 7
Gap Up % 57.1%
Avg Gap +0.17%
Best Gap +2.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OIL & GAS FIELD MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT

How NOV compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NOV: +0.48% Sector: +0.23% +0.25%
EOD Gain
NOV: +2.02% Sector: +0.71% +1.31%
Avg MFE
NOV: +5.99% Sector: +2.87% +3.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NOV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-08 09:28:00 $19.09 -0.21% +0.03% -0.18% +0.63% -0.89% +0.84% -0.73% -0.47% LOSS
2022-09-30 09:25:00 $15.94 +0.88% -1.22% +1.07% +0.88% +1.51% +3.33% -1.25% +1.69% WIN
2022-07-18 09:25:00 $14.61 -0.27% +0.14% -0.03% +0.58% -0.27% +1.62% -0.65% -0.34% LOSS
2022-03-23 09:25:00 $19.87 +1.36% +0.70% -0.10% -0.30% -1.46% +2.26% - +0.30% WIN
2022-03-08 09:25:00 $22.02 +2.04% +5.90% +5.70% +8.99% -0.27% +9.26% -0.09% +0.23% WIN
2022-03-07 09:25:00 $18.07 +1.27% +4.40% +9.24% +18.10% +17.27% +25.46% - +2.05% WIN
2022-02-17 09:25:00 $17.41 -1.72% -2.13% -2.53% -2.64% -1.72% -0.86% -3.45% -2.24% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 71.4% Baseline on NOV

The 71.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NOV's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NOV Strategy →

Why Analyze NOV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NOV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NOV historically offers an average upside of +5.99% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NOV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 71.4%, NOV shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NOV performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.12%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.